Battle Royale

Back when I was a kid we used to watch wrestling. My brother Robbie was the first to get the bug, first going to Florida Championship matches at the Miami Beach Convention Center. Ultimately though he convinced me, and I still remember my first WWF event in Pennsylvania featuring Rocky Johnson, SD Jones, The Iron Sheik, Nikolai Volkov, The Samoans, and Sergeant Slaughter. Today, it seems like we are heading towards what they call the Battle Royale in which all the wrestlers are in the ring at once and are each gradually eliminated through allegiances and ganging up by the other wrestlers against each individual guy. The current campaign is slowly turning into just such an event. In this case you have one tag team (Bush and McCain) and 2 solo wrestlers (Obama and Clinton) who are all battling it out.

Bush has every reason to help McCain and so for the foreseeable future he and McCain figure to focus in on similar themes against whomever McCain decides to take on in the moment. Obama and Clinton both know that they will not be able to go at this together and so they will have to take out each other while the tag team gets to sit back and take its shots when it can.

Once one of our solo wrestlers are out of the ring the tag team will take on whomever is left. Now the twist in this type of match is that miraculously the tag team guys never end up winning. Eventually one of them picks up a chair and accidentally knocks his partner out of the ring or goes over the top rope trying to complete a tough two man kill and I think that is what we will see here.

Eventually, McCain will have to throw Bush out of the ring. Bush's negative number is just to high and approval to low to be enough of a help to McCain to be worthy of hanging on to.

Super Delegate Reform Proposal

I really do hope the super delegate system is thoroughly revised after this season and here is what I propose (if we really have to have them)....

Super delegates should only be based on the current members of the House and Senate, Sitting Governors and the parties leader in each house of a state's legislature. This would work out to about 370-420 votes based on the size of the majorities in the House and Senate and the number of Governors while weighting the system more towards states and districts that are represented by Democrats. Supers would be compelled to vote the same way as their district/state with the ability to be released by a voted majority of all the super delegates (to allow for the Murphy scenario of the presumed candidate falling apart).

Super Delegates from Abroad

I am all for people being able to continue to vote and support their choice of candidate even if they are living abroad. However, I was shocked to learn that the party actually allocates 2 super delegates for this group as well.

This year the 2 gentlemen live in Canada (where they have been since the 1970's) and while they have split their allegiances by each going for a different candidate, thus being a wash, should either of these guys really have more say in the nomination then anyone else by making them super delegates?

The chart below shows the current breakdown of super delegates for each candidate. While Hillary Clinton continues to hold a lead of about 64 votes, it is stunning to note where her lead comes from.

While Clinton surrogates like Geraldine Ferraro have tried to argue that the super delegates are elected by the people and represent a truer feel for what the people want, it is clear that Clinton's lead is only due to super delegates who fall under the DNC or DPL (party leader) designation.

While some of these people may have run for office once upon a time, the truth is that none of them represent the elected will of anyone. In fact, if you review the list you actually find people who are on the Clinton campaign payroll (like Terry McAuliffe) who didn't even have the judgment to see that if you are going to work for a candidate you should not also be a super delegate.

Superdelegates by Position (w/o Michigan and Florida)

Candidate	Clinton		Obama
Gov.	10		11
Sen.	12		10
Rep.	73		66
DPL	18		8
DNC	126		79
Add-Ons	0		1
Total	239		175
Last Updated: 2/25/2008

CNN, AP, and Kingston

I am hoping that Keith Olbermann can find a way to name CNN, AP, and Rep Jack Kingston his worst people in the world...or at least group them in as one entry. Over the weekend all three managed to find ways to create or further questions about the patriotism of Barack Obama.

On Friday night Kingston criticized Obama for not putting his hand on his heart during the pledge and not wearing a flag pin on his lapel. First of all Kingston wasn't wearing a flag pin himself. Secondly, it was the Star Spangled Banner that was playing and there is no protocol for doing that during the anthem (look around at the football or baseball game next time) and even though some choose to do it, this is hardly a patriotism marker. Then you get the AP going down the road of the previous internet garbage again.

But it is CNN who takes the cake. Last night they actually had a poll on their site asking people if Obama was patriotic enough to be President.

Ferraro Go Home!

The New York Times was clearly desperate for an outside contribution for its editorial pages today. Not only did they give a huge amount of ink to Geraldine Ferraro to write an editorial on behalf of the Clinton campaign, but in doing so they also managed to inadvertently show just what is wrong with the whole team Clinton.

Ferraro's piece is the campaign's justification for why the super delegates should go against the will of the people in the primaries and how the super delegates are all knowing beings who have saved the Democratic party from itself. Ferraro roots her argument in the 1980 DNC claiming that Kennedy's attempt to wrestle the nomination from a sinking sitting Jimmy Carter was destructive to the party and led to the Hunt Commission on which she served. She goes on to explain that the feeling was that the party leaders felt the only way to insure that all of the party leaders would lock into line at the convention was if they all got more responsibility and power at the convention. The former VP nominee goes on to say that she feels that the 1984 convention which produced the longest platform in history was a tremendous success because it incorporated everyone and had nothing to do with why the party got trounced in the fall.

Where to start here...The 1980 convention was in chaos because though I love Jimmy his administration was in a similar state. While I don't necessarily like the idea of a free for all I can say that I watched in 1980 and the people who jumped ship did so because they saw that Carter was going to be in real trouble in the fall. The 1984 platform was more like Frank Costanza's list of grievances on Festivus and set the standard from its successors, which not so coincidentally enough is why people ignore the platform and write them off as jokes.

The most troubling issue though is her complete disregard for the entire primary process. She states that these involve so few people that those that do show up should be discounted to account for those who don't. Ferraro's argument that Florida and Michigan should count runs counter to her argument, especially since she turns around and says they should not be penalized for the bad judgments of the state party leaders (who are super delegates in most cases) that resulted in the primaries moving up in the first place.

Hillary's Phony Fits of Rage

Did you catch the press conference HRC held on Saturday to express her "outrage" at mailers sent out by the Obama campaign about her health care policy and tying her to NAFTA?

Well in case you missed it, let me save you the trouble of hunting it down by sharing the fact that the mailers are actually several weeks old and she knew about them and complained about them in Wisconsin as well. The only difference is now she is apparently listening to the members of her campaign (thinking Mark Penn) who have told her that by going out and acting like she is really pissed that somehow this will snap everyone into place behind her.

Now fast forward to today HRC want on a rant in which she basically tried again to paint all of Obama's rhetoric and the people following it as being naive and delusional and unable to see what is really possible since they are all lacking her real wold experience and understanding.

While I have tried to not let me preferences color my posts to frequently I have to say I find this all to be really insulting. As someone who has followed events and studied policy and history since before I could even read I challenge the assertion that I can't tell the difference between reality and fantasy... after all, I can see the difference between a health plan that has a chance because it doesn't include attempts at mandates that have doomed proposals in the past. I can also see that taking a greater position of communication with countries we have had issues with will not only lead to a reduction in potential conflict, but also allow for greater opportunities for cooperation and growth with friends and traditional foes alike.

The Long Road Ahead

I don't usually put a lot of stock in the words of the chatting class, but one thing that I did hear fairly unanimously over the weekend are the newly revised expectations for Hillary on March 4th.

As you may recall, it was just a week ago when her own campaign stated they were staking here whole campaign on winning both Texas and Ohio. Only a funny thing happened in the last week or so, the quirky primacaucus rules and the polls in Texas started trending heavily for Obama, while Ohio seemed to be showing that it might just hold out and give her a narrow victory (although all the numbers were from before he started campaigning heavily in the buckeye state).

The new expectation being talked up is that Hillary wins Ohio and proclaims herself reinvigorated just like Mondale in Georgia in 1984. However, it will be interesting to see if she can truly hold on in Ohio and if so, will the press really fall for this bill of goods.

More on the Times and McCain

I grew up a huge fan of the Miami Dolphins which meant I got to watch Larry Czonka blast through the line and leave a huge hole in his wake.

Similarly, it seems the lack of any real beef behind the NY Time's thinly veiled claim that McCain "was having an affair with that woman Ms. Iseman" (to reuse a phrase) has blasted a hole through the attention span of the media. While everyone was busy trying to figure out the salacious details with the "female lobbyist" who have missed the underlying issue in the Times and the much more direct article in the Washington Post that covered McCain's longterm and very cozy relationship with lobbyists in DC. In fact if you look at McCain's statement he refers to her as a friend and he goes on to say that he has lots of friends who represent many issues in Washington.

McCain has been a part of the Washington scene for 26 years. As we all know he began his crusade for finance reform only after getting smacked down as part of the Keating 5. However, what most people don't know is that a large portion of his campaign staff and its closest advisers are in fact these same lobbyists that he is allegedly trying to keep out.

McCain Offers Curious Tale

A major theme of John McCain's denial that he had an affair with a female lobbyist is that he has never done anything improper in all the time that he has been in public service.

Too bad that he was reprimanded by the senate ethics committee for his involvement as part of the Keating 5. Also, even if you leave the allegations of hanky panky at the door, the idea that he accepted plane rides from someone who had active business in front of him as chairman and that they were asking him to act on their behalf is more troubling than the more sexy headline about what McCain and the lobbyist were doing.

I could care less about McCain's sex life. I have known to0 many people I like who have had affairs and to0 many I don't who were faithful and loyal spouses to judge anyone by that stick. However, the underlying issues here is that McCain's image is one he has built in the media out of air through empty rhetoric rather than one built one reality.

Obama and Public Financing

John McCain seems to be gaining some traction on the question of if Obama will abide by an alleged pledge to only use public financing in the general election campaign.

Now, Obama has not ruled out doing Public Financing, however what he has said was that he would only commit to Public Financing if both sides agree to prevent 527 money from getting into the mix when he said both candidates would need to:

"commit to discouraging cheating by their supporters; to refusing fundraising help to outside groups; and to limited their own parties to legal forms of involvement."

McCain has called this double speak, but in light of the 250 million dollars that Ari Fleischer is sitting on and the Swift Boating of 2004 it is clear that it is McCain who speaks with a forked tongue.

In the end this is a great symbol. Obama is willing to use public financing only, but wants to use the voices and microdonations of the people only if need to counteract the less than honest intentions of McCain who wants to use public financing so he can capitalize on his 527 Swift Boating buddies to do the dirty work for him.

I said it before and I will say it again.... Keating 5!

Good Cup of Joe

For the last few weeks the HRC campaign has taken to saying the media has been too soft on the Obama campaign as a whole and the candidate in particular. I am not one to usually cite Joe Scarborough for keen political thought and insight by virtue of the fact that he and I are on opposite ends of the spectrum. However, he brought up an excellent point this morning...

How would Obama and his campaign been treated in the media if they had lost 10 straight contests?

HRC has been granted a huge number of second and third chances in this campaign that no other candidate would have been granted. Rudy got crucified for his Florida strategy that failed miserably.

Given the current state of things it will be interesting to see if the media lets Clinton push the bar further back should she stumble or not get the sweep she needs and perhaps even more interesting will be the question of if the media gives Obama a chance to recover if she does carry the day.

Taking All Comers

Now that HRC and John McCain are both going on the attack against Obama it should be interesting to see how he and his campaign hold up. Clearly, if he survives the onslaught of the next few weeks and is at least competitive on March 4 he will have shown that he can take the best from 2 national campaigns at the same time. If he is splits or sweeps the day regardless of margin, then the Clinton campaign is going to have to think long and hard about the political price of going further.

Plagiarism?

Since my academic career is way behind me I feel very safe in confiding with you all that as a student I was guilty of plagiarism at several points through my academic career. Those of you who have known me for a long time may not find that shocking but this does I feel give me some latitude to speak as one who has been guilty of this offense in the past.

Now, I know that I am given to quoting people without crediting them all the time. Sometimes these are famous well known expressions that the public know about and other times it is passing along something I heard along the way. At no point do I intend to convince everyone that I am smarter then they think I am by the comments that I use. In fact the main reason why I do this is to make a point and sometimes other people have already come up with the best way to say it and so why fight city hall. I say this because I think this latest attempt to make an issue out of Obama's use of Gov. Patrick's wording is perhaps the most ridiculous of these flailing punches to date.

Not only are Obama and Patrick very good friends for more than 15 years, but they actually share a lot of the same political team. In comparing this to Joe Biden in 1988, what gets conveniently left on the curb is that Biden was caught taking wholesale statements and themes from a British politician with whom he had no relationship whatsoever.

While I usually quote my mother when I say "no enemies only customers" or my dad with his "the man with the gold makes the rules" or Roger Grimsby's more cynical "the fucking you get not being worth the fucking you get" but I certainly don't do this every time. Besides they aren't even the originator of those words but crediting them or not does not make me a plagiarist today.

Update on Revote08.com

Sorry to have been tied up the last few days, but I was working on the revote08.com site so I could get something launched quickly.... I really believe that this could be a critical issue for the ongoing nomination process as well as a potential nightmare in the general election so I would please ask that you take some time to consider that I am standing here waving my arms now in hopes that the truck isn't going to end up down the road where the bridge is out.

Debates and the General Election

The Clinton campaign has been very quick to jump up and down about the lack of a debate before the Wisconsin primary. It is interesting to remember that this is the same candidate who complained about the number of debates early on.

That being said, if it wasn't for the fact that there is already a debate scheduled for next Thursday in Austin, Texas with another a few days later, I would agree that we never have enough debates. I just hope that this theme carries on through the general election where the public is best served through thorough and numerous debates that involve direct interaction between the candidates. Letting them call each other out allows them to also rebut the others stupid charges on the spot and expose the fraud among the real candidates. Also, the more the candidates debate in the fall the clearer it would be what direction there party would take the country in should they assume power.

Revote08.com Update

I am continuing to put the pieces together to launch revote08.com with a goal of raising the money necessary for a mail in and internet based primary so we can legitimately seat the full delegations from Florida and Michigan.

The current math shows that both of these states full slate of delegates are needed to allow for a clean nomination process. Hillary is still trying to say that the fatally flawed Michigan and Florida results from January should count. In light of the fact that she was the only major candidate who did not have the honesty to remove her name from the Michigan ballot it is obvious why she wants that lopsided result to stand.

I am eagerly looking for ways to get the message out, so once we launch I need everyone to tell your friends, media and political consulting contacts, and importantly any talk radio show that you like to listen to.

Mark Penn is a Moron

During a press call yesterday, Clinton's chief strategist had the stupidity to say:
"Could we possibly have a nominee who hasn't won any of the significant states -- outside of Illinois? That raises some serious questions about Sen. Obama.”

This is the same kind of stupidity that has run 51/49 and flyover state elections for the last 14 years and has resulted in losses for the democrats every time they buy into it. Howard Dean proved last year that a 50 state strategy was the key to the Dems getting back into power and he was right.

Penn may choose to right off states like Idaho because they are bright red, but remember that they will have a disgraced Senator (Larry Craig) leaving his seat in January and so there is reason to want to create buzz in the land of the spuds.

Obama has also brought out huge crowds in winnable states like Colorado and even Kansas, where a Democrat is currently the very popular governor.

Once again this is truly about the old thought of us versus them and the more pragmatic, productive, and yes hopeful approach of one United States of America.

A look at the polls

After McCain's clean sweep on Tuesday any doubt that the Republican nomination is all but sewn up was put to bed. That being said the polls coming out of the next round of states show that Obama still has a lot of messaging to get out. His lead in Wisconsin, which along with Hawaii holds a primary on Tuesday, is down to a handful with a large number of voters still claiming to be undecided. Obama is campaigning heavily here and it seems that even though Hillary has thrown some late resources into the race, his energy in the state should continue to spread and carry the day.

Beyond next Tuesday things are a lot less clear. Hillary's early front runner status is still holding strong in OH and PA where polls out today show her having a comfortable double digit lead. However, it is also clear that Obama's numbers start to go up as soon as he starts to campaign somewhere, and it only stands to figure that once WI and HI wrap up on Tuesday that TX and OH will get there chance to see what the rest of the country has been exposed to. The Ohio campaign figures to also give the campaigns an opportunity to get the message going in bordering Pennsylvania, which votes on 4/22.

The trends are all indicating that Clinton will have to fight for wins in these states and reality is already showing that she is throwing everything she has at them.

Where the Dems Go from Here

The talk is heating up in the Democratic nomination battle with the Clinton camp running a new ad accusing Obama of being afraid to debate in Wisconsin. It is interesting to remember that once upon a time Hillary derided the other candidates in the race for wanting debates because she believed they were taking up her valuable time.

Scalia's Bizzare Little World

Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia made some public comments yesterday that should send a chill down anyone's body. It is his stated belief that while there may be a limit on the type of treatment a convicted individual may endure, such protections do not apply to suspects. As such, he foresees where methods such as water boarding would not be unconstitutional so long as the person isn't covered by the protections afforded. Here are the words right from the horse's ass:

In the interview with the Law in Action programme on BBC Radio 4, he said it was "extraordinary" to assume that the ban on "cruel and unusual punishment" - the US Constitution's Eighth Amendment - also applied to "so-called" torture.

"To begin with the constitution... is referring to punishment for crime. And, for example, incarcerating someone indefinitely would certainly be cruel and unusual punishment for a crime."

Justice Scalia argued that courts could take stronger measures when a witness refused to answer questions.

"I suppose it's the same thing about so-called torture. Is it really so easy to determine that smacking someone in the face to determine where he has hidden the bomb that is about to blow up Los Angeles is prohibited in the constitution?" he asked.

"It would be absurd to say you couldn't do that. And once you acknowledge that, we're into a different game.

"How close does the threat have to be? And how severe can the infliction of pain be?"

Ouch!

Obama and McCain Cruise to Big Wins

Both parties saw sweeps last night and now it seems the Obama campaign is pivoting to start addressing McCain in his stump speeches. However, one need only look at the differences in the crowds and tone to see that we will have two very different candidates this fall if this all continues to unravel as it currently is with one candidate speaking to the America of the past made up of those nostalgic for the days of so called moderate republicanism twinged with the promise of judges who view the constitution as words whose exact and precise wording is beyond interpretation.

Caucuses getting a bum rap

The Clinton campaign is doing its best to dismiss the results of the caucus states by saying they are not representative of the true will of all voters, just the ones who have a lot of time. Bill Clinton even remarked that the people who aren't able to vote in the caucuses are actually the people who need a President because they are in need of someone who can help them improve their lives.

Here are the problems with these arguments:

1. Many of the caucuses have been held on the weekends when most have union labor has off.
2. Some places like Maine have actually allowed for absentee balloting.
3. Turnout has been overwhelming at the caucuses to the point where they have actually let a lot of people vote and leave.

Obama has won in big in the caucuses, which coincidentally enough also represent the same states that the Democrats need to be more competitive in. The enthusiasm we have seen in his campaign have the making of long coat tails that could net seats in the house and senate that may have otherwise been a reach.

The Bogus Superdelegate Argument

Perhaps the most bogus argument about super delegates was made by the Clinton campaign over the weekend when they said the delegates were all people who at some point on the state local or national level had stood election and were thus entrusted by the people to be leaders and make decisions.

The problem is that about 25% of these delegates are party activists and consultants who have never been elected by you or me to do anything. In some cases these are the same people who would be called lobyists or people who work for lobbying firms and interests once the candidate is elected and that is where the rub is.

It is bad enough that people think that that elected officials deserve extra say but the consultant class? I just saw a guy who is with the Young Democrats of America who is a super delegate who said the highlight of his life was getting a call from Bill Clinton himself... anyone else see the problem here? While this guys heart is probably in the right place, why is his voice worth as much as thousands of democrats?

The delegate system in the democratic party needs a major overhaul. The gradual creep that we get with this disproportionate proportional delegate allocations of delegates needs to be more respectful of the margins that we actually see in primaries to allow for a cleaner result.

People will only continue to be interested if the results are transparent and easy to decipher and that is not where we are today.

Proposal for Florida and Michigan

As you know I am a Florida Democrat, and as such have been rattling my noodle for a solution to the delegate problem in my state, as well as that in Michigan.

I sent the following to my friends in the political consulting community this morning.... I would love to hear back from people as to how they feel about this idea as I am very serious about pursuing it. The results in Florida and Michigan may be a farce, but there is no reason that the voices of the people of these two pivotal swing states shouldn't be heard.

An all mail in and online based primary. Oregon votes exclusively by mail and the DNC did online voting for Democrats abroad. We could allow voters to submit applications via 800 number, email, snail mail, or website. This is much cheaper and easier to organize than a caucus (thus disposing of the fears of one candidate who doesn't caucus well). Furthermore, since any slate of delegates is ultimately approved by the state party convention and this is not a government sanctioned election there is no need to involve the secretary of state's apparatus beyond what would be necessary or practicable.

The election last month drew 1.5 million voters. Remember that this number was inflated by a very hot statewide property tax amendment and in addition, that slot machines were on the Miami Dade ballot. If you take the 1.5 million voters who voted in the original primary and throw in a premium of another 500,000 voters because of the hype, we end up with 2 million voters looking to cast ballots. Therefore if you figure a cost for postage, printing , administrative, and processing on the high side at $1.25 per voter you get a cost of $2.5 million, which is significantly less than the $4 million that has been estimated as the cost of a caucus. We can allocate another $1.5 million against the cost of Michigan. (These numbers are overly inflated but I figured I'd be generous to make a point.)

Published reports show that the DNC is willing to put up money to defray part of the costs for this so that means that at the most all that needs to be raised is 2-3 million dollars to cover the difference for both states. Keep in mind that this is a situation where there is no limit on contributions and there are a very motivated group of donors nationally who want to see a legitimate result out of Florida and Michigan. There are also a pool of voters who did vote (because of other issues on the ballot) but who subsequently selected their beauty contest candidate and not a nominee since they saw this as a chance to vote for an Edwards, Kucinich, or candidate who had already dropped out. Ultimately, the original results have legal issues which unless ignored can provide leverage for enacting this kind of solution.

There are numerous voters in both states who did not cast ballots because they were told the elections were nothing more than beauty contests by the national and state party as well as by the news media and the candidates themselves. These voters could conceivably file suit to block seating of the delegates. This could be used to either force the hands of the parties that be or as a further justification of why this has to take place. I was hoping to get some feedback from you all and see if you think this is worthwhile to pursue. I can get the web presence built out to get the donation machine flowing very quickly and in such a way that it can be grown out over time to accommodate additional information and promotion to the site.

This is a great opportunity to fix this before it gets out of hand and so I am willing to dedicate whatever I have to so please let me know. This can be plunked on to the back end of the calendar in late may and early June so that this becomes more of a formality if not necessary but also leaving plenty of time for candidates to campaign in both states. I have floated this trial balloon around the sunshine state and this definately has a lot of voter interest. $10 from 300,000 people solves this (or more from less :) ).

Arnie

Yahoo! to Spurn Microsoft

Now that Yahoo! is going to turn away Microsoft's hostile bid of 44 billion it will be interesting to see how things in Redmond play out. Clearly they are looking to make a play to boost there presence on the web and while they could try and sweeten the offer with the webs number 2 it is clear that Yahoo! thinks they are worth a lot more than what was offered and so it is probably a better idea that it looks at some other properties that might be available.

The Keating Five

Want to impress your friends this election season? When you get into a discussion about John McCain and his wealth of experience, see if the person (or people) remember that McCain was censured in the senate for being one of the famous Keating Five from the S&L scandal in the 80's.

I can understand why Bush never used this 2000, since it would have called the actions of his brother Neil into question, but how did Mitt Romney's folks miss this opportunity. The country is in the midst of another financial sector crisis, with it being based in residential real estate instead of commercial like last time, and you have to figure the similarities are easy to call out from there.

With Keating, McCain was nailed for trying to stop the investigation of Keating's Lincoln Savings and Loan, so how would he pursue bad actors (and clearly there were some) who made out on the mortgage problem of today.

Taking the temperature of the Dems

Now that everyone has had a day to digest what happened on Tuesday, here is where it seems things stand:

• HRC disclosed that she lent her campaign $5 million dollars.
  
• Since the polls closed on Tuesday HRC has a very impressive 4 million dollars (almost). The problem is that Obama is reporting that he has raised more than 7.5, As a reminder Obama raised more than twice as much money in January (30 million to 14 million).
• Both candidates seemed to have pulled in the same amount of delegates on Tuesday with a slight edge to Obama winning 13 out of the 22 contests that have been decided (NM still counting).
• HRC still has the overall delegate lead because of the Super Delegates, however, only 300 of the 800 available Supers have committed and over the last couple of weeks the majority of the commits have been to Obama. It would be unfortunate if these end up determining the race and they decide to go against the people's choice (whomever that may end up being) but that is something to keep in mind.

The next week should bring a lot of good news to Obama supporters with some opportunity for HRC to sell herself as the upset candidate as most of the upcoming contests this weekend are caucuses, and we all saw how well Obama showed in the caucus states on Tuesday winning all of them by a wide margin. From looking at Survey USA's Presidential matchups in Washington State it is clear that Obama is seen as the far more electable candidate against Romney or McCain and that does not bode well for HRC in a state with 97 delegates at stake.

There are 447 pledged (in addition to another 152 Super delegates that may have already committed) on the table of for the Democrats over the next few weeks, and if Obama performs in the caucuses as he did last week, he figures to pickup a sizeable enough net after this weekends caucuses. Tuesday figures to be a good day for him in the Potomac/Beltway Primary and after contests in Wisconsin and Hawaii offer Obama a shot at actually building up a lead heading towards Texas and Ohio on March 4th.

The Morning After

We get to sit back this morning and examine a fairly interesting playing field for each party this morning. When you look at the numbers it is clear that John McCain is the Republican to carry the blue state bound group while still struggling mightily with the home field in red state land. Clearly he cleaned up with a lot of delegates, but how do you ignore that the list of states sounds like the land of the locks for the democrats? The only 2 states he won that are traditional Republican strongholds are Oklahoma and his gradually blue leaning home state of Arizona. This lends to 2 schools of thought that as a general election candidate McCain would:

1. play stronger in blue state land by virtue of his overwhelming support among more moderate republicans and independents.
2. be such a disappointment to the right and center right parts of the party to the point where a disaffected party stays home and puts more of the swing states and even a few more of the northern plains states (where Romney cleaned up) will be in play for the Democrats.

Either scenario seems to play well to the Democrats who figure to be able to raise money challenged only by each other. Of course the bean counters will be quick to point out that most of Hillary's donors are already tapped out on what they can give and so Obama has an obvious advantage since he has a higher number of donors who have given much smaller amounts individually. That being said, clearly someone is voting for Hillary and so unless she just doesn't know how to get money out of her supporters (which is doubtful) than she is in trouble long term. People who donate to your campaign tend to be people who will vote for your campaign since after all they are investing in the candidate as an enterprise and it would only stand to reason they would follow this through.

As for the delegate counts, keep in mind that the numbers you see today include the super delegates (elected officials like governors, mayors, state reps, etc.) of which there are 800 and HRC currently has a 193-106 lead. The supers can change their mind and would be the moving piece in any brokered convention. That being said, the longer and more legitimate the Obama campaign becomes in the eyes of the super delegates out there, the more likely his total of super delegates figures to go up. Conversely, if HRC suddenly gains huge momentum expect to see these flood to her. A great example of this system at work was explained in the endorsement post I wrote yesterday concerning Barbra Boxer. Super delegates will show up at a poll and cast a vote but that doesn't mean they will declare support for that candidate or that they will ultimately be a super delegate for that candidate. At the end of the day a cynic would say this is what is called being a bandwagon delegate.

All that aside, the next few weeks will be very interesting as things slow down to a trickle by comparison to what we have seen over the last few weeks. The Democrats have 3 caucuses this weekend (WA, NE, ME) and one primary (LA) and that should be fertile ground for Obama who cleaned up in the caucuses and has shown real strength in the caucuses since they are all about energy, momentum, and ground operations.
More later....

Obama Wins Georgia

I know it is hard to believe that the networks called Georgia exactly at 7P after the polls had just closed after the debacle in New Hampshire, but there you have it. The numbers are overwhelming to look at as he has increased his percentages with all of the voting groups over South Carolina, and in the case of the white vote he almost doubled what he pulled in the palmetto state.

Huckabee wins WVA

After pulling within 9 points of the needed majority in the first round of voting in the WVA caucus Mitt Romney apparently couldn't close the deal. Now it seems that McCain released his caucus captains with instructions to vote for Huckabee and it has apparently worked as Mike Huckabee is on his way to a win there.

This is an interesting calculation by McCain... clearly Huckabee is the candidate with the most irrefutable Conservative credentials when compared with Romney or McCain and if there is any hole open for a challenge after tonight it could be that Huckabee turns out to be more than McCain bargained for. Huckabee has always been handcuffed by a lack of funds, but is it possible that Lamebaugh and company could dump their cash into his campaign in hopes of foiling McCain?

Endorsements vs Voting Choice

I just saw an interview on MSNBC with CA Senator Barbra Boxer who has yet to endorse a candidate in the democratic race. David Gregory went out of the way to mention she hadn't endorsed in hopes of obviously getting her to crack. However, wouldn't it have been easier to ask her who she voted for? Unless she didn't vote in the primary she clearly voted absentee (since she is in DC) and so it shouldn't be that hard to say who you believe in... provided she wants to be honest about it and not just someone who is calculating and kicking the can down the road against making a call to soon in a tight race.

Endorsements vs Voting Choice

I just saw an interview on MSNBC with CA Senator Barbra Boxer who has yet to endorse a candidate in the democratic race. David Gregory went out of the way to mention she hadn't endorsed in hopes of obviously getting her to crack. However, wouldn't it have been easier to ask her who she voted for? Unless she didn't vote in the primary she clearly voted absentee (since she is in DC) and so it shouldn't be that hard to say who you believe in... provided you want to be honest about it and not just be calculating against making a call to soon in a tight race.

Polls, The Undecided, and the Media

Gameday... remember that if you don't vote your forfeit your right to complain!

Today is primary day for about half the country and most of the media continues to misrepresent the findings of polls as it relates to the large number of undecideds and choices for other candidates that make up as much as a combined 23% in some of the polls.

In order for these results to hold you would have to believe that this entire block either chooses to stay home, votes for their "other candidate" choice, or breaks in the exact proportion to the rest of the public who already made up their mind. The polling is also always reported as a complete number and not broken down to those who are leaning vs. strongly supporting their candidate.

This has been a wildly fluid race. What we may ultimately see today on the Democratic side is a battle between the established candidate who mobilized heavily around early voting taking on the change candidate who has the wind at their back.

I look for Obama to take states like Connecticut, where they have had record registration taking place. He should also do well in the caucus states like Minnesota and Idaho where momentum is king and attendance is required.

I think that there is a strong possibility that he will under perform in states with early voting where Hillary was very strong in earlier polling like California, Arizona, and New Mexico. The numbers indicate that the absentee and early voting was heavy, however, a big turnout at the polls would show that Obama's momentum is for real.

The Republican race figures to be either a landslide or something akin to The Empire Strikes Back. Late numbers seem to show that the Republicans behind the Orange Curtain may not have liked the love fest with Rudy, Arnold, and McCain and they could be prepared to say so at the polls. Mix in the acrimony that the talking heads on the right have with Fox News as their megaphone and any weakness by McCain today will be rubbed raw until the next trips to the polls.

However, the key to all of this is Huckabee. There are several scenarios that could make for a much longer process than what would happen if he and Romney don't just knock each other off and clear the path for MacCain:

1. Huckabee wins the South, Romney wins Massachusetts, Missouri, Utah and Montana while complicating things for McCain in California who wins in the North East accept for Massachusetts.
2. Romney does well in the aforementioned states while he and Huckabee clear the way for McCain to win as above and in the South by splitting the 60% of Southerners who will be left scratching their head as to how he snuck by them and won when the wake up on Wednesday morning.
3. McCain prevails in all the states save for the Romney strongholds (Utah and Mass) and Huckabee's Arkansas thus leaving him on the verge of closing things out over the next few weeks.
4. McCain does well in the more liberal, security hawk republican states in the North East and at home in AZ and NM while Romney wins in Mass and out West as well as California. Huckabee then becomes the wildcard in this scenario as he could end up giving the South to McCain or winning it for himself unless he is written off by the Evangelical crowd, which seems unlikely.
5. Huckabee wins in the South and Missouri and emerges as a player again while Romney and McCain split the rest of the spoils and make this a 3 man race.
   

Remember, this becomes more of a distance race after today. While candidates will need to continue to raise cash, it is a lot easier to finance a campaign in a couple of states at a time that are regionally connected (i.e next weeks Beltway Primary) than it is to have to run all over the country throwing around money like Diddy at a gentlemen's club. Therefore, unless some blows the doors off the house (or gets blown out on the Republican side) don't expect to see anyone take bow out after tonight.

Yahoo! and Microsoft

Got a few emails and phone inquiries asking me for my take on the $42 billion hostile bid by Microsoft to take over Yahoo!

It is clear that the web's #2 search engine has been reeling having just laid off 1,000 yodelers last week and seeing its stock plummet to $18/share. However, I am not so sure that this is the perfect fit or complement of the 2 companies existing web presences. For the foreseeable future the company would still probably publish both the msn and yahoo! site for at least an interim period until a plan for how they would work through their conflicting or redundant content agreements. Eventually, I foresee that one will eventually be nothing more than a redirect to the other, I am thinking Yahoo! as service of MSN is probably what you will end up with.

One thing that will be interesting to see is how this effects Microsoft's longterm vulnerability to future business practices issues in a Democratic administration. It is no accident that Gates, Ballmer and the rest of the Redding, WA elite have donated more to Republicans than Democrats since the bringing of the infamous multi state class action during the Clinton Administration.

Where is Edwards?

Ever since John Edwards dropped out of the race last week I have been telling people to keep their eyes out to see how pure Edwards is when it comes to who he really supports.

This seemed like a simple equation for me. If Edwards endorsed before Tuesday, it would be based upon his true feelings of whom he really wanted to see get the nomination. However, by waiting until things are further down the road, it is my belief that he is really just kicking the can down the street to see who will be the better bet to deliver on a promised role in the next administration.

New Polls Raising Eyebrows and Drawing Tears

The movement in the polls over the last few days has been unlike any we have seen on such a national scale where scandal wasn't involved. Not only does it now appear that Barack Obama (BHO) is going to give Hillary Clinton (HRC) a battle to the last delegate but all the Conservatives who have always claimed to loathe John McCain will now be faced with having to put up and stay home or shut the f&*k up once and for all.

That being said, I was suspicious to see the "hey look at me I am a woman running for President" event that HRC held in Connecticut this AM. Once again going to the hankey, HRC claimed to be teary eyed from an introduction at the small intimate setting meant to further sell her directly to older women.

Welcome to the letter and MTV Debate

Welcome to the first posting on this blog... Tried doing this once before in 2004 and people seemed to like what I had to add and so I figured to give this another shot.

It is important to remember that this is an open forum and everyone is free to submit their feedback, however, when it comes to putting one's 2 cents in I am Warren Buffet :).

Anyway, just finished watching the MTV debate and I have to say the first thing that occurs to me is how strong Ron Paul's netroots are. The guy is an absolute nut when it comes to his stance on the role of government, but I can't ignore how his peeps dominated the dials online when it came to voting on the responses provided by the candidates at MySpace and MTV.com.