Polls, The Undecided, and the Media

Gameday... remember that if you don't vote your forfeit your right to complain!

Today is primary day for about half the country and most of the media continues to misrepresent the findings of polls as it relates to the large number of undecideds and choices for other candidates that make up as much as a combined 23% in some of the polls.

In order for these results to hold you would have to believe that this entire block either chooses to stay home, votes for their "other candidate" choice, or breaks in the exact proportion to the rest of the public who already made up their mind. The polling is also always reported as a complete number and not broken down to those who are leaning vs. strongly supporting their candidate.

This has been a wildly fluid race. What we may ultimately see today on the Democratic side is a battle between the established candidate who mobilized heavily around early voting taking on the change candidate who has the wind at their back.

I look for Obama to take states like Connecticut, where they have had record registration taking place. He should also do well in the caucus states like Minnesota and Idaho where momentum is king and attendance is required.

I think that there is a strong possibility that he will under perform in states with early voting where Hillary was very strong in earlier polling like California, Arizona, and New Mexico. The numbers indicate that the absentee and early voting was heavy, however, a big turnout at the polls would show that Obama's momentum is for real.

The Republican race figures to be either a landslide or something akin to The Empire Strikes Back. Late numbers seem to show that the Republicans behind the Orange Curtain may not have liked the love fest with Rudy, Arnold, and McCain and they could be prepared to say so at the polls. Mix in the acrimony that the talking heads on the right have with Fox News as their megaphone and any weakness by McCain today will be rubbed raw until the next trips to the polls.

However, the key to all of this is Huckabee. There are several scenarios that could make for a much longer process than what would happen if he and Romney don't just knock each other off and clear the path for MacCain:

1. Huckabee wins the South, Romney wins Massachusetts, Missouri, Utah and Montana while complicating things for McCain in California who wins in the North East accept for Massachusetts.
2. Romney does well in the aforementioned states while he and Huckabee clear the way for McCain to win as above and in the South by splitting the 60% of Southerners who will be left scratching their head as to how he snuck by them and won when the wake up on Wednesday morning.
3. McCain prevails in all the states save for the Romney strongholds (Utah and Mass) and Huckabee's Arkansas thus leaving him on the verge of closing things out over the next few weeks.
4. McCain does well in the more liberal, security hawk republican states in the North East and at home in AZ and NM while Romney wins in Mass and out West as well as California. Huckabee then becomes the wildcard in this scenario as he could end up giving the South to McCain or winning it for himself unless he is written off by the Evangelical crowd, which seems unlikely.
5. Huckabee wins in the South and Missouri and emerges as a player again while Romney and McCain split the rest of the spoils and make this a 3 man race.
   

Remember, this becomes more of a distance race after today. While candidates will need to continue to raise cash, it is a lot easier to finance a campaign in a couple of states at a time that are regionally connected (i.e next weeks Beltway Primary) than it is to have to run all over the country throwing around money like Diddy at a gentlemen's club. Therefore, unless some blows the doors off the house (or gets blown out on the Republican side) don't expect to see anyone take bow out after tonight.