98 Bottles of Beer

Fourteen weeks from today we all have the opportunity to elect a new course for this country, or sell ourselves down the river with another 4 years of depressingly oppressive Republican policies.

With this in mind I am going to try and get things going again with the blog in hopes that I can offer some insight to what promises to be a most intriguing 3 months.

For now I would tell everyone to basically ignore the Likely Voter polling data (not that the Registered Voter screens are that much better).

This figures to be a very different electorate this year and because of the expected higher turnout among the general electorate and African-American and younger voters in particular tend to make the art of creating models to analyzing polling data that much more of a crap shoot. Since older white voters have a tendency to be a reliable voting block in an average year, they would tend to be oversampled in a year like this since in the past African-American and younger voters tended to vote in lower numbers than even the greatest skeptic would suggest.