Last night's results have truly made an interesting mess of things for the Democrats. Not only will the race continue on to Pennsylvania, but unless Obama wins the Keystone state I would expect that this race plays out through the end of the "scheduled" season in Puerto Rico.
Of course that leaves the issue of what to do about Florida and Michigan. As you all know I have been working the idea of a revote for the last couple of months, and it would now seem that the rest of the world is starting to catch on to the idea. However, it is crucial that this be held and run by the party and not by the state apparatus. The reason for this is that the state process would be at the mercy of Republican control and would give them the opportunity to also highlight the fact that the Democrats just cost the state 10 million dollars that the state of Florida doesn't have.
Clear results in Florida and Michigan would lend legitimacy to either campaign that prevailed in that Obama could add huge important swing states and Hillary could make her argument that she wins where she thinks it counts.
Wednesday, March 5, 2008
Monday, March 3, 2008
Tuesday Blues
As a lot of you have figured out I have cast my lot with Barack Obama... That being said, I have a rather miserable feeling about how things are going to shake out for the March 4th primaries.
The late polling out of Ohio is showing Obama's trend flat lining just short of the promised land and while he has closed a 23 point lead to single digits in the Buckeye state, it would appear that Obama's winning streak will come to a halt. What's worse is that the late polls out of Texas seem to be showing similar modeling with Hillary settling a point or two either behind or in the lead.
The good news in Texas is that there are still a large number of undecideds, who may still break Obama's way, and frankly from looking at some of the models it seems like her demo's really show up for her in numbers that they aren't going to show for Obama (which hasn't been the case yet).
Either way, the rhetoric out of the Clinton camp is very clear, unfortunately they are going to keep this going through Pennsylvania and beyond thus opting for a "nuclear" strategy in the Democratic party.
The late polling out of Ohio is showing Obama's trend flat lining just short of the promised land and while he has closed a 23 point lead to single digits in the Buckeye state, it would appear that Obama's winning streak will come to a halt. What's worse is that the late polls out of Texas seem to be showing similar modeling with Hillary settling a point or two either behind or in the lead.
The good news in Texas is that there are still a large number of undecideds, who may still break Obama's way, and frankly from looking at some of the models it seems like her demo's really show up for her in numbers that they aren't going to show for Obama (which hasn't been the case yet).
Either way, the rhetoric out of the Clinton camp is very clear, unfortunately they are going to keep this going through Pennsylvania and beyond thus opting for a "nuclear" strategy in the Democratic party.
Sunday, March 2, 2008
Will Tuesday be the End?
I for one find myself hoping that the nomination process comes to a halt after Tuesday's voting in VT, RI, OH, and TX and that we finally have a clear field for the Democratic nominee to make their run at the White House.
However, while this may be what I am hoping for, it is far more likely that the Clinton campaign will make some sort of argument that because Obama didn't win everything by the same 15 points he did 2 weeks ago, that the electorate is having second thoughts. The problem is that Obama was trailing be more than 20 points in TX and OH a month ago and the story really is how much momentum he has brought with him. In overcoming the huge disadvantage he had in these states he will most likely win the majority of the delegates up for grabs, and with Hillary needing more than 80% of the remaining delegates at that point to break even it will be time for her to suspend her campaign.
The question is, will she be like the great candidates who see when it is time to step aside much like Ted Williams or Joe DiMaggio who saw that he could still hang in there but didn't want to do so if it meant diminishing himself, or like Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens who felt that winning at any cost is so important they are even willing to lie to themselves about how far one should really go before taking a bow and walking off the field.
However, while this may be what I am hoping for, it is far more likely that the Clinton campaign will make some sort of argument that because Obama didn't win everything by the same 15 points he did 2 weeks ago, that the electorate is having second thoughts. The problem is that Obama was trailing be more than 20 points in TX and OH a month ago and the story really is how much momentum he has brought with him. In overcoming the huge disadvantage he had in these states he will most likely win the majority of the delegates up for grabs, and with Hillary needing more than 80% of the remaining delegates at that point to break even it will be time for her to suspend her campaign.
The question is, will she be like the great candidates who see when it is time to step aside much like Ted Williams or Joe DiMaggio who saw that he could still hang in there but didn't want to do so if it meant diminishing himself, or like Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens who felt that winning at any cost is so important they are even willing to lie to themselves about how far one should really go before taking a bow and walking off the field.
Intrade Being Gamed?
I was just looking at the buying and selling of political futures going on over on Intrade and it is very interesting to see where it looks like people are trying to fudge the reporting numbers.
If you look at the most recent trades for Obama in Ohio you see where someone offered 50% less than the current asking price to make the average asking price look lower. In the same you race you can pull up Hillary and see where someone is offering to sell her futures at 4x the current asking price, thus making it look like there has been a spike in pricing.
Since the state races are traded far less vigorously then the national race these types of little games can actually have an effect (as witnessed in the fluctuations in pricing in that particular race today).
If you look at the most recent trades for Obama in Ohio you see where someone offered 50% less than the current asking price to make the average asking price look lower. In the same you race you can pull up Hillary and see where someone is offering to sell her futures at 4x the current asking price, thus making it look like there has been a spike in pricing.
Since the state races are traded far less vigorously then the national race these types of little games can actually have an effect (as witnessed in the fluctuations in pricing in that particular race today).
MLBtv.com Embraces Silverlight
MLBtv.com, which has always been an industry leader in subscription content on the internet (that which isn't porn) and it is interesting to note that their new media player for 2008 is designed using Microsoft Silverlight. Silverlight provides a flash compatible experience but leveraging windows media's VC-1 technology in addition to legacy WMV playback. Most importantly it is MAC and PC compliant and is really what pushed Flash to embrace H.264 over its own native encoding format.
Saturday, March 1, 2008
Saturday Night Live
Just caught the opening for SNL and they have once again managed to pander to the Clinton campaign... One question that comes to mind is how that little scene at the desk can't be seen as anything other than a campaign plug. Unlike other pols who have taken on a turn on SNL, Hillary wasn't written in to any skit and was instead just sitting at a desk and was set up as giving an "editorial reply" to the debate... What a joke!
While I am bitching let me also say I don't enjoy Fred Armison's impression of Obama. While they can do what they will to kind of make him look like similar, his impression of Obama is dopey and sells him as being a real intellectual lightweight when sitting next to Hillary, which anyone who has watched the debates would tell you is definitely not the case.
While I am bitching let me also say I don't enjoy Fred Armison's impression of Obama. While they can do what they will to kind of make him look like similar, his impression of Obama is dopey and sells him as being a real intellectual lightweight when sitting next to Hillary, which anyone who has watched the debates would tell you is definitely not the case.
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