Here is a great clip from July in which Sarah Palin and Ted Stevens are talking about the earmark process and what it means for Alaska.
You will note that Palin is hardly saying that she feels Alaska should avoid earmarks and instead is saying that she merely recognizes that both presidential candidates would be curbing earmarks and she is just reading the handwriting on the wall.
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
Another McCain Adviser Touts Economic Health
McCain adviser Donald Luskin had a lengthy article up this weekend in which he goes into detail about the great shape of the US Economy.
This was published on Sept. 14 as Lehman, AIG, and Merrill were falling apart.
Perhaps it is easy to overlook that the current administration and its policies have gotten us here in the first place, but to continue to stick there head in the sand causes me to believe the GOP needs to change its logo to an Ostrich instead.
McCain Responsible for Blackberry?
This morning one of John McCain's campaign spokespeople touted McCain as being the man responsible for the Blackberry because of his time as Commerce Committee chairman.
This would seem to fall in line with the Al Gore claim of inventing the internet since both men claim that their chairmanships were the key factor.
In Gore's case his stewardship can be directly connected to the mainstream evolution of the net, since its invention was actually part of government scientific work. However, in the case of Blackberry the problem is the device was actually created in Canada.
Furthermore, the moves that opened the door for the explosion of wireless devices was actually the purview of the Clinton run FCC which auctioned off the spectrum and licenses which allowed the cell phone and data age to take off.
This would seem to fall in line with the Al Gore claim of inventing the internet since both men claim that their chairmanships were the key factor.
In Gore's case his stewardship can be directly connected to the mainstream evolution of the net, since its invention was actually part of government scientific work. However, in the case of Blackberry the problem is the device was actually created in Canada.
Furthermore, the moves that opened the door for the explosion of wireless devices was actually the purview of the Clinton run FCC which auctioned off the spectrum and licenses which allowed the cell phone and data age to take off.
McCain Adviser Created Bank Crisis
A review of the record of John McCain's economic adviser Phil Graham is a clear road map as to who got us in this unfortunate mess:
Phil Graham is the guy who said America is in a "mental recession" and just a bunch of winers is actually the guy who wrote and shoved through the deregulation that got the banking industry in its current mess.
Phil Graham is the guy who said America is in a "mental recession" and just a bunch of winers is actually the guy who wrote and shoved through the deregulation that got the banking industry in its current mess.
Late in his Senate career, Gramm spearheaded efforts to pass banking reform laws, including the landmark Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act in 1999, which served to reduce government regulations in existence since the Great Depression separating banking, insurance and brokerage activities.
Critics now point to Gramm and this same legislation as having been pivotal in encouraging the corporate practices that led to the 2008 mortgage crises in America.
Between 1995 and 2000 Gramm, who was the chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, received $1,000,914 in campaign contributions from the Securities & Investment industry.
As lobbyist for Swiss bank UBS, Gramm has pressured congress to ease it's restrictions on predatory lending tactics by mortgage brokers. For his efforts, Gramm received $750,000 from UBS in a one year period starting in 2007.
Tuesday, July 29, 2008
98 Bottles of Beer
Fourteen weeks from today we all have the opportunity to elect a new course for this country, or sell ourselves down the river with another 4 years of depressingly oppressive Republican policies.
With this in mind I am going to try and get things going again with the blog in hopes that I can offer some insight to what promises to be a most intriguing 3 months.
For now I would tell everyone to basically ignore the Likely Voter polling data (not that the Registered Voter screens are that much better).
This figures to be a very different electorate this year and because of the expected higher turnout among the general electorate and African-American and younger voters in particular tend to make the art of creating models to analyzing polling data that much more of a crap shoot. Since older white voters have a tendency to be a reliable voting block in an average year, they would tend to be oversampled in a year like this since in the past African-American and younger voters tended to vote in lower numbers than even the greatest skeptic would suggest.
With this in mind I am going to try and get things going again with the blog in hopes that I can offer some insight to what promises to be a most intriguing 3 months.
For now I would tell everyone to basically ignore the Likely Voter polling data (not that the Registered Voter screens are that much better).
This figures to be a very different electorate this year and because of the expected higher turnout among the general electorate and African-American and younger voters in particular tend to make the art of creating models to analyzing polling data that much more of a crap shoot. Since older white voters have a tendency to be a reliable voting block in an average year, they would tend to be oversampled in a year like this since in the past African-American and younger voters tended to vote in lower numbers than even the greatest skeptic would suggest.
Saturday, May 10, 2008
Obama Takes Superdelegate Lead
I am happy to report that Barack Obama has finally overtaken HRC for the superdelegate lead and now leads 274-270.5.
Thursday, May 8, 2008
Obama to Pay Clinton?
Over the years there have always been stories about how people running for office and lost saw their finances in ruin and their debts run to the ceiling. It is because of these horror stories that many very well qualified candidates have stepped off the stage when they saw the numbers just didn't add up.
Now there are loud rumors and reporting that the Obama campaign will cut a deal with the Clinton campaign that would include paying off her campaign's debts. This raises a number of intellectual and emotional questions.
1. What financial incentive does Hillary have to get out if Obama will just bail her out?
2. Why should Obama supporters be saddled with paying for the losing campaign that did nothing but call them irrelevant latte drinker's and blacks from small states?
3. Even if Obama agreed to pay for her true expenses to the little guy, should Obama have to pay off her campaign's lingering debt to Mark Penn?
4. Hillary lent herself money, that would seem to be her own at risk capital, in light of that fact, shouldn't this debt be treated as her own "buyer beware"?
Clearly, this is only a few of the issues that this can boil in my mind but make no mistake about it, this is not about the money to pay the delivery service bill or the pizza guy.
The real issue is that if the Obama campaign does write Hillary Clinton an 11.5 million dollar check to pay her back for what she lent her campaign. Should this happen the right will spin this and MSM will pick it up as being nothing more than a political pay off to get her out of the race.
Besides, did John McCain pay Mitt Romney back for the money he invested out of his pocket in his campaign?
Now there are loud rumors and reporting that the Obama campaign will cut a deal with the Clinton campaign that would include paying off her campaign's debts. This raises a number of intellectual and emotional questions.
1. What financial incentive does Hillary have to get out if Obama will just bail her out?
2. Why should Obama supporters be saddled with paying for the losing campaign that did nothing but call them irrelevant latte drinker's and blacks from small states?
3. Even if Obama agreed to pay for her true expenses to the little guy, should Obama have to pay off her campaign's lingering debt to Mark Penn?
4. Hillary lent herself money, that would seem to be her own at risk capital, in light of that fact, shouldn't this debt be treated as her own "buyer beware"?
Clearly, this is only a few of the issues that this can boil in my mind but make no mistake about it, this is not about the money to pay the delivery service bill or the pizza guy.
The real issue is that if the Obama campaign does write Hillary Clinton an 11.5 million dollar check to pay her back for what she lent her campaign. Should this happen the right will spin this and MSM will pick it up as being nothing more than a political pay off to get her out of the race.
Besides, did John McCain pay Mitt Romney back for the money he invested out of his pocket in his campaign?
Tuesday, May 6, 2008
Myanmar's Katrina and Hypocrisy
It is stunning to see that at least 22,000 people died over the weekend in Myanmar in a cyclone that has many similarities to Hurricane Katrina.
Much like here, the government failed to do what was necessary to warn the citizens and has been slow to accept food, medical, and disaster aid from the outside world.
However, this tragedy has also brought us a monumental dose of chutzpah coming from the Bush administration.
Yesterday, they sent out Laura Bush to complain about the slow response by Myanmar's government as well as to complain that the government won't let disaster assessment and recovery teams in to do their work.
All of this comes from an administration that watched the news for 5 days before getting help to the people in New Orleans and who flew over the top of one of America's great cities and did nothing.
Clearly, Laura was sent out because she would seem the least controversial on the subject, but at the end of the day, this hypocrisy and stagecraft is why America and the world can't wait to get rid of the Bush's
Much like here, the government failed to do what was necessary to warn the citizens and has been slow to accept food, medical, and disaster aid from the outside world.
However, this tragedy has also brought us a monumental dose of chutzpah coming from the Bush administration.
Yesterday, they sent out Laura Bush to complain about the slow response by Myanmar's government as well as to complain that the government won't let disaster assessment and recovery teams in to do their work.
All of this comes from an administration that watched the news for 5 days before getting help to the people in New Orleans and who flew over the top of one of America's great cities and did nothing.
Clearly, Laura was sent out because she would seem the least controversial on the subject, but at the end of the day, this hypocrisy and stagecraft is why America and the world can't wait to get rid of the Bush's
Thursday, May 1, 2008
Death Takes a Holiday
The only 2 things that are supposed to be inevitable in life are death and taxes. Well if John McCain and Hillary Clinton had their way at least one of these would take a holiday.
The problem is that it is not so easy to make the gas tax disappear for the summer since doing so basically means giving it up for all time. After all, does anyone really think you could get people to swallow an $.18 per gallon increase come the fall? People are naive if they think the oil companies aren't going to just look at this as more money they can ultimately tack on to the cost thus not giving us any holiday at all.
If the government wants to go after big oil it could do a windfall tax and then use that money to fund tax rebates back to consumers. This type of action would also prevent less than honorable pricing activities from occurring.
However, the bigger problem is the obviously bloated price of a barrel of oil. Even if you allow for the slide in the dollar and the increase in global demand the price should only be around $65 a barrel. Unfortunately, oil is the current get rich quick scheme for investors, hedge fund managers, and other speculators who see the continued rise in prices the same way you might look at the rise in the price of your stock with a smile.
The problem is that it is not so easy to make the gas tax disappear for the summer since doing so basically means giving it up for all time. After all, does anyone really think you could get people to swallow an $.18 per gallon increase come the fall? People are naive if they think the oil companies aren't going to just look at this as more money they can ultimately tack on to the cost thus not giving us any holiday at all.
If the government wants to go after big oil it could do a windfall tax and then use that money to fund tax rebates back to consumers. This type of action would also prevent less than honorable pricing activities from occurring.
However, the bigger problem is the obviously bloated price of a barrel of oil. Even if you allow for the slide in the dollar and the increase in global demand the price should only be around $65 a barrel. Unfortunately, oil is the current get rich quick scheme for investors, hedge fund managers, and other speculators who see the continued rise in prices the same way you might look at the rise in the price of your stock with a smile.
Wednesday, April 30, 2008
On Wright and the Race
Barack Obama finally made like Danny DeVito and threw wright from the train on Tuesday. While there are many in the media who are now trying to question what took so long, a more realistic view of the situation shows that Obama did what he had to do in a measured and reasoned fashion.
It would have been easy to give in to the calls for Obama to throw Wright overboard earlier, but that would have been seen as caving in to the public discourse. Obama now has the cover of having let Wright hang himself. Furthermore, Obama is almost a sympathetic figure at this point as having given this person who once was a figure in his life the benefit of the doubt that real people give to each other when judgment is being made outside the public sphere. In truth, this is very much like the measured time that HRC took after finding out that Bill had been sneaking with Sally in the alley before coming out and standing by her man.
That being said, aside from fringe references, this should be the end of Jeremiah Wright. Clearly, this is a man who saw an opportunity to further his own warped vision through the sacrifice of his parishioner and thus deserves to be treated as the kook he sounded and looked like on Monday. Anyone who chooses to tie this clown to Obama at this point is clearly being intellectually dishonest and with intent.
I do think that this has prevented Obama from closing things out next Tuesday. He stood on the doorstep and Wright has now made it almost impossible for Obama to win in Indiana on Tuesday. The polls are continuously breaking her way by 5-10 points and unfortunately I do not see where he can yank these folks back. He also seems to be looking at a slimmer than expected win in North Carolina, at which point I suspect that the pundits will begin trying to stretch this out until the end. Unfortunately, the following week is only West Virginia (where she is torching him) followed by Oregon and Kentucky on 5/20. I am not quite sure how Oregon announces since it is an all mail in primary, but that seems Obama's best chance for a big win after 5/6.
It would have been easy to give in to the calls for Obama to throw Wright overboard earlier, but that would have been seen as caving in to the public discourse. Obama now has the cover of having let Wright hang himself. Furthermore, Obama is almost a sympathetic figure at this point as having given this person who once was a figure in his life the benefit of the doubt that real people give to each other when judgment is being made outside the public sphere. In truth, this is very much like the measured time that HRC took after finding out that Bill had been sneaking with Sally in the alley before coming out and standing by her man.
That being said, aside from fringe references, this should be the end of Jeremiah Wright. Clearly, this is a man who saw an opportunity to further his own warped vision through the sacrifice of his parishioner and thus deserves to be treated as the kook he sounded and looked like on Monday. Anyone who chooses to tie this clown to Obama at this point is clearly being intellectually dishonest and with intent.
I do think that this has prevented Obama from closing things out next Tuesday. He stood on the doorstep and Wright has now made it almost impossible for Obama to win in Indiana on Tuesday. The polls are continuously breaking her way by 5-10 points and unfortunately I do not see where he can yank these folks back. He also seems to be looking at a slimmer than expected win in North Carolina, at which point I suspect that the pundits will begin trying to stretch this out until the end. Unfortunately, the following week is only West Virginia (where she is torching him) followed by Oregon and Kentucky on 5/20. I am not quite sure how Oregon announces since it is an all mail in primary, but that seems Obama's best chance for a big win after 5/6.
Monday, April 28, 2008
On Florida and Michigan
It would be an understatement to say that I have had a lot to say about the Florida primary that was held in January. Unfortunately, it seems that what I stated back in February is now coming home to roost as the Clinton campaign is prepared to make the argument that Florida voters showed up because they were passionate about voting in the primary.
The problem is that this is not in fact why voters showed up in January. What drew voters were the slot machine and constitutional amendment increasing the homestead exemption for homeowners that drove up the vote.
What really bothers me here is the disingenuous nature of the Clinton campaign's arguments in both Florida and Michigan. The case in Florida is obviously muddied by the fact that everyone was on the ballot, however in Michigan the case is very clear based on the commitment in writing that everyone made to not participate or recognize Michigan.
However, Clinton is now claiming that Obama removed his name from the Michigan ballot because he knew he would lose, the problem is that there is no evidence to back this claim up. The state has a large African-American population is a neighbor to Illinois and was very likely to be his as much as hers. Not for nothing, in being the only real candidate on the ballot HRC managed to outpoll "Uncommitted" by 55-40, which is hardly impressive when you consider she ran against no one.
It is also of note that Florida's Republican Governor was on TV this morning pushing the Clinton talking points including that Obama (who had bought national cable news advertising time) had been advertising in Florida prior to the vote (a huge distortion).
The problem is that this is not in fact why voters showed up in January. What drew voters were the slot machine and constitutional amendment increasing the homestead exemption for homeowners that drove up the vote.
What really bothers me here is the disingenuous nature of the Clinton campaign's arguments in both Florida and Michigan. The case in Florida is obviously muddied by the fact that everyone was on the ballot, however in Michigan the case is very clear based on the commitment in writing that everyone made to not participate or recognize Michigan.
However, Clinton is now claiming that Obama removed his name from the Michigan ballot because he knew he would lose, the problem is that there is no evidence to back this claim up. The state has a large African-American population is a neighbor to Illinois and was very likely to be his as much as hers. Not for nothing, in being the only real candidate on the ballot HRC managed to outpoll "Uncommitted" by 55-40, which is hardly impressive when you consider she ran against no one.
It is also of note that Florida's Republican Governor was on TV this morning pushing the Clinton talking points including that Obama (who had bought national cable news advertising time) had been advertising in Florida prior to the vote (a huge distortion).
Friday, April 25, 2008
McCain Showing True Colors
While I am no fan of John McCain, I have to say I am surprised how quickly his general election stripes are showing the rest of the country that this guy is one of the biggest frauds of all.
It is honorable what this man did in staying behind with his brothers in arms in the Hanoi Hilton, but that doesn't meant that he is entitled to a free pass for being a typical inside the beltway, on the take fraud who is the best friend of every lobbyist in town.
It is honorable what this man did in staying behind with his brothers in arms in the Hanoi Hilton, but that doesn't meant that he is entitled to a free pass for being a typical inside the beltway, on the take fraud who is the best friend of every lobbyist in town.
NFL Draft
A brief interlude to discuss Saturday's draft and how it looks for my (and some of the rest of your) beloved Miami Dolphins...
As a number of you know I was pushing for the Dolphins to pass on the top pick and allow themselves to slide down to a point where they could get better value than what was really available at the number one spot this year. That being said, I do applaud the phins for going out and actually getting the guy signed sealed and delivered before the draft started.
I still think they could have done better passing since they probably could have had Jake Long at number 3,4, or 5, however, at least it didn't cost as much as it would have under the last few regimes.
Expect the phins to be active through the draft and trades, I expect them to pickup a QB to push John Beck who did not impress me as having any of the tools to be a long term solution.
As a number of you know I was pushing for the Dolphins to pass on the top pick and allow themselves to slide down to a point where they could get better value than what was really available at the number one spot this year. That being said, I do applaud the phins for going out and actually getting the guy signed sealed and delivered before the draft started.
I still think they could have done better passing since they probably could have had Jake Long at number 3,4, or 5, however, at least it didn't cost as much as it would have under the last few regimes.
Expect the phins to be active through the draft and trades, I expect them to pickup a QB to push John Beck who did not impress me as having any of the tools to be a long term solution.
State of the Race
So it has now been a few days since PA and now that my annoyance at how the HRC camp continues to try and spin the numbers has started to subside I think I can offer a more clear minded appraisal of where we are at.
While there are a number of people in the MSM, HRC campaign, and sheep that continue to try and make this about everything from the electoral college to who wins what they like to term "important" states the truth of the matter is this is not about who wins the overall popular vote or any other computation that ignores what this is about delegates.
Clearly, people can complain about the setup of caucuses and primaries until they are blue in the face, but at the same time you can say that having a slow bleed for an election process doesn't make any sense either. Can you imagine if in a general election we voted for President over the course of a rolling set of elections?
That would not work, and would clearly lead to chaos. Unfortunately, so does trying to make the same type of argument out of the nominating process by applying general election rules and principals.
Another thing to keep in mind is strategy. Barack Obama has caught a lot of flack for not wanting to stomp on Hillary's head and get things over with. Some have turned to calling this closing the deal, while others have tried to equate this to some sort of general election weakness.
However, what is important to keep in mind is that in running against Hillary, Obama has had to walk a delicate line. We have already seen that happens when the media tone against her Clinton and her surrogates have a great way of spinning it as her being beaten upon as a woman. All one has to do is look at the blowback from the New Hampshire debate where Edwards and Obama were perceived to have ganged up on her. Immediately afterwards she was cast as being this wounded lamb who needed all the woman to unite and show the men that they won't allow that to happen to her. In fact, one has heard similar messages from her every time she has had to go to the well for her strongest backers (women) to come to her rescue. As a result, Obama is really running the only campaign against her that he can without completely losing the women's vote that makes up the majority of the Democratic party.
While there are a number of people in the MSM, HRC campaign, and sheep that continue to try and make this about everything from the electoral college to who wins what they like to term "important" states the truth of the matter is this is not about who wins the overall popular vote or any other computation that ignores what this is about delegates.
Clearly, people can complain about the setup of caucuses and primaries until they are blue in the face, but at the same time you can say that having a slow bleed for an election process doesn't make any sense either. Can you imagine if in a general election we voted for President over the course of a rolling set of elections?
That would not work, and would clearly lead to chaos. Unfortunately, so does trying to make the same type of argument out of the nominating process by applying general election rules and principals.
Another thing to keep in mind is strategy. Barack Obama has caught a lot of flack for not wanting to stomp on Hillary's head and get things over with. Some have turned to calling this closing the deal, while others have tried to equate this to some sort of general election weakness.
However, what is important to keep in mind is that in running against Hillary, Obama has had to walk a delicate line. We have already seen that happens when the media tone against her Clinton and her surrogates have a great way of spinning it as her being beaten upon as a woman. All one has to do is look at the blowback from the New Hampshire debate where Edwards and Obama were perceived to have ganged up on her. Immediately afterwards she was cast as being this wounded lamb who needed all the woman to unite and show the men that they won't allow that to happen to her. In fact, one has heard similar messages from her every time she has had to go to the well for her strongest backers (women) to come to her rescue. As a result, Obama is really running the only campaign against her that he can without completely losing the women's vote that makes up the majority of the Democratic party.
Sunday, April 20, 2008
Stephafraudulous phones it in
For those of you who missed it, George Stephanopoulos gave a most predictably softball treatment to John McCain. He didn't ask about his wife's tax returns, claims of adultery, the keating 5, possible violations of campaign finance law this year, or any of the other litany of issues that stand out there which call into question McCain's character. The problem is, unlike the flimsy third party crap that has been dug up on people who know or have donated $200 to Obama, these are legitimate issues that call into question McCain himself.
Hopefully, Keith Olbermann with get his shot at this fraud sometime this year, though I won't hold my breath.
Hopefully, Keith Olbermann with get his shot at this fraud sometime this year, though I won't hold my breath.
Saturday, April 19, 2008
Back From NAB
Ok... NAB once again showcased a wide variety of technologies pointing towards the further convergence and migration of the media to more IP based delivery models. However, it is important to note that the signs are prevalent that the technologies are starting to focus more on the delivery and distribution of this content to the end user (homes) and not just on the production and transmission benefits.
In the world of pro-sumer and smaller field production cameras the variety continues to improve with Sony now offering a nice swappable lens version of its offering. Panasonic continues to improve the storage capacity of its P2 cards, keeping in line with the increased capacity of SD chips. Canon's line still is my personal favorite as it seems the best suited for a wide variety of applications.
In the world of pro-sumer and smaller field production cameras the variety continues to improve with Sony now offering a nice swappable lens version of its offering. Panasonic continues to improve the storage capacity of its P2 cards, keeping in line with the increased capacity of SD chips. Canon's line still is my personal favorite as it seems the best suited for a wide variety of applications.
Monday, April 14, 2008
You Tube Page Up and Running
I have posted a bunch of videos that I have made over the last couple of years up on YouTube. If you haven't seen me on the Golden Nugget waterslide, or the John Tuttle for Congress spot now is your chance. For the rest of you, I have posted the last run of the Hurricanes onto the field at the OB and a beautiful sunset over Haiti in which the sun disappears into the ocean in 1:30.
I will try and get more up in the future...
http://youtube.com/user/penndaly
I will try and get more up in the future...
http://youtube.com/user/penndaly
Back from Hiatus
Ok... sorry to have been away for the last month or so, had to buckle down on some other issues and frankly I had kind of reached a boiling point on a few things that perhaps were better left unsaid...
Anyway, I am watching Obama give his remarks in Pittsburgh with regard to the latest made up flap over the so called "bitter" comment. This guy is truly a rock star.
I know that the pundits and surrogates are running around saying this is a huge general election issue, but I believe this is a sign of just how out of touch this group really is. While no one wants to admit that they are "bitter" as a person, I believe that most people outside the inner circle of Washington would say that they are bitter when it comes to what they feel they get out of Washington.
As a democrat I look at my frustration with my party leadership in Congress. How many times have I wanted to throw something because I saw them caving or taking yet another meek stance when it seemed that the public was behind them to be stronger. Closer to home I can give the example of my own Rep, Debbie Wasserman-Schultz who is Hillary's Florida Co-Chair and a DCCC (Dem Cong. Campaign Committee). Not only has DWS been the leader in blocking a revote in Florida (something HRC is for), but she also has refused to help the 3 democrats in Miami-Dade who are running to replace the trifecta of worthless (worthy of another post) because she values the long relationship she has had with them.
I don't even think I have to go within a country mile of drawing the Republican examples to the light, but Iraq, Terri Schiavo, torture, privacy, and a couple of hundred others quickly come to mind.
I do think that you will see the Republicans try to use this in the Fall. However, if Obama sticks to the type of line that he is today, that the people in Washington are the ones who are out of touch because they don't understand the true frustration and disillusion that the rest of us who are not "insiders" are feeling.
Anyway, I am watching Obama give his remarks in Pittsburgh with regard to the latest made up flap over the so called "bitter" comment. This guy is truly a rock star.
I know that the pundits and surrogates are running around saying this is a huge general election issue, but I believe this is a sign of just how out of touch this group really is. While no one wants to admit that they are "bitter" as a person, I believe that most people outside the inner circle of Washington would say that they are bitter when it comes to what they feel they get out of Washington.
As a democrat I look at my frustration with my party leadership in Congress. How many times have I wanted to throw something because I saw them caving or taking yet another meek stance when it seemed that the public was behind them to be stronger. Closer to home I can give the example of my own Rep, Debbie Wasserman-Schultz who is Hillary's Florida Co-Chair and a DCCC (Dem Cong. Campaign Committee). Not only has DWS been the leader in blocking a revote in Florida (something HRC is for), but she also has refused to help the 3 democrats in Miami-Dade who are running to replace the trifecta of worthless (worthy of another post) because she values the long relationship she has had with them.
I don't even think I have to go within a country mile of drawing the Republican examples to the light, but Iraq, Terri Schiavo, torture, privacy, and a couple of hundred others quickly come to mind.
I do think that you will see the Republicans try to use this in the Fall. However, if Obama sticks to the type of line that he is today, that the people in Washington are the ones who are out of touch because they don't understand the true frustration and disillusion that the rest of us who are not "insiders" are feeling.
Wednesday, March 5, 2008
Now what?
Last night's results have truly made an interesting mess of things for the Democrats. Not only will the race continue on to Pennsylvania, but unless Obama wins the Keystone state I would expect that this race plays out through the end of the "scheduled" season in Puerto Rico.
Of course that leaves the issue of what to do about Florida and Michigan. As you all know I have been working the idea of a revote for the last couple of months, and it would now seem that the rest of the world is starting to catch on to the idea. However, it is crucial that this be held and run by the party and not by the state apparatus. The reason for this is that the state process would be at the mercy of Republican control and would give them the opportunity to also highlight the fact that the Democrats just cost the state 10 million dollars that the state of Florida doesn't have.
Clear results in Florida and Michigan would lend legitimacy to either campaign that prevailed in that Obama could add huge important swing states and Hillary could make her argument that she wins where she thinks it counts.
Of course that leaves the issue of what to do about Florida and Michigan. As you all know I have been working the idea of a revote for the last couple of months, and it would now seem that the rest of the world is starting to catch on to the idea. However, it is crucial that this be held and run by the party and not by the state apparatus. The reason for this is that the state process would be at the mercy of Republican control and would give them the opportunity to also highlight the fact that the Democrats just cost the state 10 million dollars that the state of Florida doesn't have.
Clear results in Florida and Michigan would lend legitimacy to either campaign that prevailed in that Obama could add huge important swing states and Hillary could make her argument that she wins where she thinks it counts.
Monday, March 3, 2008
Tuesday Blues
As a lot of you have figured out I have cast my lot with Barack Obama... That being said, I have a rather miserable feeling about how things are going to shake out for the March 4th primaries.
The late polling out of Ohio is showing Obama's trend flat lining just short of the promised land and while he has closed a 23 point lead to single digits in the Buckeye state, it would appear that Obama's winning streak will come to a halt. What's worse is that the late polls out of Texas seem to be showing similar modeling with Hillary settling a point or two either behind or in the lead.
The good news in Texas is that there are still a large number of undecideds, who may still break Obama's way, and frankly from looking at some of the models it seems like her demo's really show up for her in numbers that they aren't going to show for Obama (which hasn't been the case yet).
Either way, the rhetoric out of the Clinton camp is very clear, unfortunately they are going to keep this going through Pennsylvania and beyond thus opting for a "nuclear" strategy in the Democratic party.
The late polling out of Ohio is showing Obama's trend flat lining just short of the promised land and while he has closed a 23 point lead to single digits in the Buckeye state, it would appear that Obama's winning streak will come to a halt. What's worse is that the late polls out of Texas seem to be showing similar modeling with Hillary settling a point or two either behind or in the lead.
The good news in Texas is that there are still a large number of undecideds, who may still break Obama's way, and frankly from looking at some of the models it seems like her demo's really show up for her in numbers that they aren't going to show for Obama (which hasn't been the case yet).
Either way, the rhetoric out of the Clinton camp is very clear, unfortunately they are going to keep this going through Pennsylvania and beyond thus opting for a "nuclear" strategy in the Democratic party.
Sunday, March 2, 2008
Will Tuesday be the End?
I for one find myself hoping that the nomination process comes to a halt after Tuesday's voting in VT, RI, OH, and TX and that we finally have a clear field for the Democratic nominee to make their run at the White House.
However, while this may be what I am hoping for, it is far more likely that the Clinton campaign will make some sort of argument that because Obama didn't win everything by the same 15 points he did 2 weeks ago, that the electorate is having second thoughts. The problem is that Obama was trailing be more than 20 points in TX and OH a month ago and the story really is how much momentum he has brought with him. In overcoming the huge disadvantage he had in these states he will most likely win the majority of the delegates up for grabs, and with Hillary needing more than 80% of the remaining delegates at that point to break even it will be time for her to suspend her campaign.
The question is, will she be like the great candidates who see when it is time to step aside much like Ted Williams or Joe DiMaggio who saw that he could still hang in there but didn't want to do so if it meant diminishing himself, or like Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens who felt that winning at any cost is so important they are even willing to lie to themselves about how far one should really go before taking a bow and walking off the field.
However, while this may be what I am hoping for, it is far more likely that the Clinton campaign will make some sort of argument that because Obama didn't win everything by the same 15 points he did 2 weeks ago, that the electorate is having second thoughts. The problem is that Obama was trailing be more than 20 points in TX and OH a month ago and the story really is how much momentum he has brought with him. In overcoming the huge disadvantage he had in these states he will most likely win the majority of the delegates up for grabs, and with Hillary needing more than 80% of the remaining delegates at that point to break even it will be time for her to suspend her campaign.
The question is, will she be like the great candidates who see when it is time to step aside much like Ted Williams or Joe DiMaggio who saw that he could still hang in there but didn't want to do so if it meant diminishing himself, or like Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens who felt that winning at any cost is so important they are even willing to lie to themselves about how far one should really go before taking a bow and walking off the field.
Intrade Being Gamed?
I was just looking at the buying and selling of political futures going on over on Intrade and it is very interesting to see where it looks like people are trying to fudge the reporting numbers.
If you look at the most recent trades for Obama in Ohio you see where someone offered 50% less than the current asking price to make the average asking price look lower. In the same you race you can pull up Hillary and see where someone is offering to sell her futures at 4x the current asking price, thus making it look like there has been a spike in pricing.
Since the state races are traded far less vigorously then the national race these types of little games can actually have an effect (as witnessed in the fluctuations in pricing in that particular race today).
If you look at the most recent trades for Obama in Ohio you see where someone offered 50% less than the current asking price to make the average asking price look lower. In the same you race you can pull up Hillary and see where someone is offering to sell her futures at 4x the current asking price, thus making it look like there has been a spike in pricing.
Since the state races are traded far less vigorously then the national race these types of little games can actually have an effect (as witnessed in the fluctuations in pricing in that particular race today).
MLBtv.com Embraces Silverlight
MLBtv.com, which has always been an industry leader in subscription content on the internet (that which isn't porn) and it is interesting to note that their new media player for 2008 is designed using Microsoft Silverlight. Silverlight provides a flash compatible experience but leveraging windows media's VC-1 technology in addition to legacy WMV playback. Most importantly it is MAC and PC compliant and is really what pushed Flash to embrace H.264 over its own native encoding format.
Saturday, March 1, 2008
Saturday Night Live
Just caught the opening for SNL and they have once again managed to pander to the Clinton campaign... One question that comes to mind is how that little scene at the desk can't be seen as anything other than a campaign plug. Unlike other pols who have taken on a turn on SNL, Hillary wasn't written in to any skit and was instead just sitting at a desk and was set up as giving an "editorial reply" to the debate... What a joke!
While I am bitching let me also say I don't enjoy Fred Armison's impression of Obama. While they can do what they will to kind of make him look like similar, his impression of Obama is dopey and sells him as being a real intellectual lightweight when sitting next to Hillary, which anyone who has watched the debates would tell you is definitely not the case.
While I am bitching let me also say I don't enjoy Fred Armison's impression of Obama. While they can do what they will to kind of make him look like similar, his impression of Obama is dopey and sells him as being a real intellectual lightweight when sitting next to Hillary, which anyone who has watched the debates would tell you is definitely not the case.
Friday, February 29, 2008
Battle Royale
Back when I was a kid we used to watch wrestling. My brother Robbie was the first to get the bug, first going to Florida Championship matches at the Miami Beach Convention Center. Ultimately though he convinced me, and I still remember my first WWF event in Pennsylvania featuring Rocky Johnson, SD Jones, The Iron Sheik, Nikolai Volkov, The Samoans, and Sergeant Slaughter. Today, it seems like we are heading towards what they call the Battle Royale in which all the wrestlers are in the ring at once and are each gradually eliminated through allegiances and ganging up by the other wrestlers against each individual guy. The current campaign is slowly turning into just such an event. In this case you have one tag team (Bush and McCain) and 2 solo wrestlers (Obama and Clinton) who are all battling it out.
Bush has every reason to help McCain and so for the foreseeable future he and McCain figure to focus in on similar themes against whomever McCain decides to take on in the moment. Obama and Clinton both know that they will not be able to go at this together and so they will have to take out each other while the tag team gets to sit back and take its shots when it can.
Once one of our solo wrestlers are out of the ring the tag team will take on whomever is left. Now the twist in this type of match is that miraculously the tag team guys never end up winning. Eventually one of them picks up a chair and accidentally knocks his partner out of the ring or goes over the top rope trying to complete a tough two man kill and I think that is what we will see here.
Eventually, McCain will have to throw Bush out of the ring. Bush's negative number is just to high and approval to low to be enough of a help to McCain to be worthy of hanging on to.
Bush has every reason to help McCain and so for the foreseeable future he and McCain figure to focus in on similar themes against whomever McCain decides to take on in the moment. Obama and Clinton both know that they will not be able to go at this together and so they will have to take out each other while the tag team gets to sit back and take its shots when it can.
Once one of our solo wrestlers are out of the ring the tag team will take on whomever is left. Now the twist in this type of match is that miraculously the tag team guys never end up winning. Eventually one of them picks up a chair and accidentally knocks his partner out of the ring or goes over the top rope trying to complete a tough two man kill and I think that is what we will see here.
Eventually, McCain will have to throw Bush out of the ring. Bush's negative number is just to high and approval to low to be enough of a help to McCain to be worthy of hanging on to.
Tuesday, February 26, 2008
Super Delegate Reform Proposal
I really do hope the super delegate system is thoroughly revised after this season and here is what I propose (if we really have to have them)....
Super delegates should only be based on the current members of the House and Senate, Sitting Governors and the parties leader in each house of a state's legislature. This would work out to about 370-420 votes based on the size of the majorities in the House and Senate and the number of Governors while weighting the system more towards states and districts that are represented by Democrats. Supers would be compelled to vote the same way as their district/state with the ability to be released by a voted majority of all the super delegates (to allow for the Murphy scenario of the presumed candidate falling apart).
Super delegates should only be based on the current members of the House and Senate, Sitting Governors and the parties leader in each house of a state's legislature. This would work out to about 370-420 votes based on the size of the majorities in the House and Senate and the number of Governors while weighting the system more towards states and districts that are represented by Democrats. Supers would be compelled to vote the same way as their district/state with the ability to be released by a voted majority of all the super delegates (to allow for the Murphy scenario of the presumed candidate falling apart).
Super Delegates from Abroad
I am all for people being able to continue to vote and support their choice of candidate even if they are living abroad. However, I was shocked to learn that the party actually allocates 2 super delegates for this group as well.
This year the 2 gentlemen live in Canada (where they have been since the 1970's) and while they have split their allegiances by each going for a different candidate, thus being a wash, should either of these guys really have more say in the nomination then anyone else by making them super delegates?
This year the 2 gentlemen live in Canada (where they have been since the 1970's) and while they have split their allegiances by each going for a different candidate, thus being a wash, should either of these guys really have more say in the nomination then anyone else by making them super delegates?
The chart below shows the current breakdown of super delegates for each candidate. While Hillary Clinton continues to hold a lead of about 64 votes, it is stunning to note where her lead comes from.
While Clinton surrogates like Geraldine Ferraro have tried to argue that the super delegates are elected by the people and represent a truer feel for what the people want, it is clear that Clinton's lead is only due to super delegates who fall under the DNC or DPL (party leader) designation.
While some of these people may have run for office once upon a time, the truth is that none of them represent the elected will of anyone. In fact, if you review the list you actually find people who are on the Clinton campaign payroll (like Terry McAuliffe) who didn't even have the judgment to see that if you are going to work for a candidate you should not also be a super delegate.
Superdelegates by Position (w/o Michigan and Florida)
While Clinton surrogates like Geraldine Ferraro have tried to argue that the super delegates are elected by the people and represent a truer feel for what the people want, it is clear that Clinton's lead is only due to super delegates who fall under the DNC or DPL (party leader) designation.
While some of these people may have run for office once upon a time, the truth is that none of them represent the elected will of anyone. In fact, if you review the list you actually find people who are on the Clinton campaign payroll (like Terry McAuliffe) who didn't even have the judgment to see that if you are going to work for a candidate you should not also be a super delegate.
Superdelegates by Position (w/o Michigan and Florida)
| Candidate | Clinton | Obama | |||||
| Gov. | 10 | 11 | |||||
| Sen. | 12 | 10 | |||||
| Rep. | 73 | 66 | |||||
| DPL | 18 | 8 | |||||
| DNC | 126 | 79 | |||||
| Add-Ons | 0 | 1 | |||||
| Total | 239 | 175 | |||||
Monday, February 25, 2008
CNN, AP, and Kingston
I am hoping that Keith Olbermann can find a way to name CNN, AP, and Rep Jack Kingston his worst people in the world...or at least group them in as one entry. Over the weekend all three managed to find ways to create or further questions about the patriotism of Barack Obama.
On Friday night Kingston criticized Obama for not putting his hand on his heart during the pledge and not wearing a flag pin on his lapel. First of all Kingston wasn't wearing a flag pin himself. Secondly, it was the Star Spangled Banner that was playing and there is no protocol for doing that during the anthem (look around at the football or baseball game next time) and even though some choose to do it, this is hardly a patriotism marker. Then you get the AP going down the road of the previous internet garbage again.
But it is CNN who takes the cake. Last night they actually had a poll on their site asking people if Obama was patriotic enough to be President.
On Friday night Kingston criticized Obama for not putting his hand on his heart during the pledge and not wearing a flag pin on his lapel. First of all Kingston wasn't wearing a flag pin himself. Secondly, it was the Star Spangled Banner that was playing and there is no protocol for doing that during the anthem (look around at the football or baseball game next time) and even though some choose to do it, this is hardly a patriotism marker. Then you get the AP going down the road of the previous internet garbage again.
But it is CNN who takes the cake. Last night they actually had a poll on their site asking people if Obama was patriotic enough to be President.
Ferraro Go Home!
The New York Times was clearly desperate for an outside contribution for its editorial pages today. Not only did they give a huge amount of ink to Geraldine Ferraro to write an editorial on behalf of the Clinton campaign, but in doing so they also managed to inadvertently show just what is wrong with the whole team Clinton.
Ferraro's piece is the campaign's justification for why the super delegates should go against the will of the people in the primaries and how the super delegates are all knowing beings who have saved the Democratic party from itself. Ferraro roots her argument in the 1980 DNC claiming that Kennedy's attempt to wrestle the nomination from a sinking sitting Jimmy Carter was destructive to the party and led to the Hunt Commission on which she served. She goes on to explain that the feeling was that the party leaders felt the only way to insure that all of the party leaders would lock into line at the convention was if they all got more responsibility and power at the convention. The former VP nominee goes on to say that she feels that the 1984 convention which produced the longest platform in history was a tremendous success because it incorporated everyone and had nothing to do with why the party got trounced in the fall.
Where to start here...The 1980 convention was in chaos because though I love Jimmy his administration was in a similar state. While I don't necessarily like the idea of a free for all I can say that I watched in 1980 and the people who jumped ship did so because they saw that Carter was going to be in real trouble in the fall. The 1984 platform was more like Frank Costanza's list of grievances on Festivus and set the standard from its successors, which not so coincidentally enough is why people ignore the platform and write them off as jokes.
The most troubling issue though is her complete disregard for the entire primary process. She states that these involve so few people that those that do show up should be discounted to account for those who don't. Ferraro's argument that Florida and Michigan should count runs counter to her argument, especially since she turns around and says they should not be penalized for the bad judgments of the state party leaders (who are super delegates in most cases) that resulted in the primaries moving up in the first place.
Ferraro's piece is the campaign's justification for why the super delegates should go against the will of the people in the primaries and how the super delegates are all knowing beings who have saved the Democratic party from itself. Ferraro roots her argument in the 1980 DNC claiming that Kennedy's attempt to wrestle the nomination from a sinking sitting Jimmy Carter was destructive to the party and led to the Hunt Commission on which she served. She goes on to explain that the feeling was that the party leaders felt the only way to insure that all of the party leaders would lock into line at the convention was if they all got more responsibility and power at the convention. The former VP nominee goes on to say that she feels that the 1984 convention which produced the longest platform in history was a tremendous success because it incorporated everyone and had nothing to do with why the party got trounced in the fall.
Where to start here...The 1980 convention was in chaos because though I love Jimmy his administration was in a similar state. While I don't necessarily like the idea of a free for all I can say that I watched in 1980 and the people who jumped ship did so because they saw that Carter was going to be in real trouble in the fall. The 1984 platform was more like Frank Costanza's list of grievances on Festivus and set the standard from its successors, which not so coincidentally enough is why people ignore the platform and write them off as jokes.
The most troubling issue though is her complete disregard for the entire primary process. She states that these involve so few people that those that do show up should be discounted to account for those who don't. Ferraro's argument that Florida and Michigan should count runs counter to her argument, especially since she turns around and says they should not be penalized for the bad judgments of the state party leaders (who are super delegates in most cases) that resulted in the primaries moving up in the first place.
Hillary's Phony Fits of Rage
Did you catch the press conference HRC held on Saturday to express her "outrage" at mailers sent out by the Obama campaign about her health care policy and tying her to NAFTA?
Well in case you missed it, let me save you the trouble of hunting it down by sharing the fact that the mailers are actually several weeks old and she knew about them and complained about them in Wisconsin as well. The only difference is now she is apparently listening to the members of her campaign (thinking Mark Penn) who have told her that by going out and acting like she is really pissed that somehow this will snap everyone into place behind her.
Now fast forward to today HRC want on a rant in which she basically tried again to paint all of Obama's rhetoric and the people following it as being naive and delusional and unable to see what is really possible since they are all lacking her real wold experience and understanding.
While I have tried to not let me preferences color my posts to frequently I have to say I find this all to be really insulting. As someone who has followed events and studied policy and history since before I could even read I challenge the assertion that I can't tell the difference between reality and fantasy... after all, I can see the difference between a health plan that has a chance because it doesn't include attempts at mandates that have doomed proposals in the past. I can also see that taking a greater position of communication with countries we have had issues with will not only lead to a reduction in potential conflict, but also allow for greater opportunities for cooperation and growth with friends and traditional foes alike.
Well in case you missed it, let me save you the trouble of hunting it down by sharing the fact that the mailers are actually several weeks old and she knew about them and complained about them in Wisconsin as well. The only difference is now she is apparently listening to the members of her campaign (thinking Mark Penn) who have told her that by going out and acting like she is really pissed that somehow this will snap everyone into place behind her.
Now fast forward to today HRC want on a rant in which she basically tried again to paint all of Obama's rhetoric and the people following it as being naive and delusional and unable to see what is really possible since they are all lacking her real wold experience and understanding.
While I have tried to not let me preferences color my posts to frequently I have to say I find this all to be really insulting. As someone who has followed events and studied policy and history since before I could even read I challenge the assertion that I can't tell the difference between reality and fantasy... after all, I can see the difference between a health plan that has a chance because it doesn't include attempts at mandates that have doomed proposals in the past. I can also see that taking a greater position of communication with countries we have had issues with will not only lead to a reduction in potential conflict, but also allow for greater opportunities for cooperation and growth with friends and traditional foes alike.
The Long Road Ahead
I don't usually put a lot of stock in the words of the chatting class, but one thing that I did hear fairly unanimously over the weekend are the newly revised expectations for Hillary on March 4th.
As you may recall, it was just a week ago when her own campaign stated they were staking here whole campaign on winning both Texas and Ohio. Only a funny thing happened in the last week or so, the quirky primacaucus rules and the polls in Texas started trending heavily for Obama, while Ohio seemed to be showing that it might just hold out and give her a narrow victory (although all the numbers were from before he started campaigning heavily in the buckeye state).
The new expectation being talked up is that Hillary wins Ohio and proclaims herself reinvigorated just like Mondale in Georgia in 1984. However, it will be interesting to see if she can truly hold on in Ohio and if so, will the press really fall for this bill of goods.
As you may recall, it was just a week ago when her own campaign stated they were staking here whole campaign on winning both Texas and Ohio. Only a funny thing happened in the last week or so, the quirky primacaucus rules and the polls in Texas started trending heavily for Obama, while Ohio seemed to be showing that it might just hold out and give her a narrow victory (although all the numbers were from before he started campaigning heavily in the buckeye state).
The new expectation being talked up is that Hillary wins Ohio and proclaims herself reinvigorated just like Mondale in Georgia in 1984. However, it will be interesting to see if she can truly hold on in Ohio and if so, will the press really fall for this bill of goods.
Friday, February 22, 2008
More on the Times and McCain
I grew up a huge fan of the Miami Dolphins which meant I got to watch Larry Czonka blast through the line and leave a huge hole in his wake.
Similarly, it seems the lack of any real beef behind the NY Time's thinly veiled claim that McCain "was having an affair with that woman Ms. Iseman" (to reuse a phrase) has blasted a hole through the attention span of the media. While everyone was busy trying to figure out the salacious details with the "female lobbyist" who have missed the underlying issue in the Times and the much more direct article in the Washington Post that covered McCain's longterm and very cozy relationship with lobbyists in DC. In fact if you look at McCain's statement he refers to her as a friend and he goes on to say that he has lots of friends who represent many issues in Washington.
McCain has been a part of the Washington scene for 26 years. As we all know he began his crusade for finance reform only after getting smacked down as part of the Keating 5. However, what most people don't know is that a large portion of his campaign staff and its closest advisers are in fact these same lobbyists that he is allegedly trying to keep out.
Similarly, it seems the lack of any real beef behind the NY Time's thinly veiled claim that McCain "was having an affair with that woman Ms. Iseman" (to reuse a phrase) has blasted a hole through the attention span of the media. While everyone was busy trying to figure out the salacious details with the "female lobbyist" who have missed the underlying issue in the Times and the much more direct article in the Washington Post that covered McCain's longterm and very cozy relationship with lobbyists in DC. In fact if you look at McCain's statement he refers to her as a friend and he goes on to say that he has lots of friends who represent many issues in Washington.
McCain has been a part of the Washington scene for 26 years. As we all know he began his crusade for finance reform only after getting smacked down as part of the Keating 5. However, what most people don't know is that a large portion of his campaign staff and its closest advisers are in fact these same lobbyists that he is allegedly trying to keep out.
Thursday, February 21, 2008
McCain Offers Curious Tale
A major theme of John McCain's denial that he had an affair with a female lobbyist is that he has never done anything improper in all the time that he has been in public service.
Too bad that he was reprimanded by the senate ethics committee for his involvement as part of the Keating 5. Also, even if you leave the allegations of hanky panky at the door, the idea that he accepted plane rides from someone who had active business in front of him as chairman and that they were asking him to act on their behalf is more troubling than the more sexy headline about what McCain and the lobbyist were doing.
I could care less about McCain's sex life. I have known to0 many people I like who have had affairs and to0 many I don't who were faithful and loyal spouses to judge anyone by that stick. However, the underlying issues here is that McCain's image is one he has built in the media out of air through empty rhetoric rather than one built one reality.
Too bad that he was reprimanded by the senate ethics committee for his involvement as part of the Keating 5. Also, even if you leave the allegations of hanky panky at the door, the idea that he accepted plane rides from someone who had active business in front of him as chairman and that they were asking him to act on their behalf is more troubling than the more sexy headline about what McCain and the lobbyist were doing.
I could care less about McCain's sex life. I have known to0 many people I like who have had affairs and to0 many I don't who were faithful and loyal spouses to judge anyone by that stick. However, the underlying issues here is that McCain's image is one he has built in the media out of air through empty rhetoric rather than one built one reality.
Wednesday, February 20, 2008
Obama and Public Financing
John McCain seems to be gaining some traction on the question of if Obama will abide by an alleged pledge to only use public financing in the general election campaign.
Now, Obama has not ruled out doing Public Financing, however what he has said was that he would only commit to Public Financing if both sides agree to prevent 527 money from getting into the mix when he said both candidates would need to:
"commit to discouraging cheating by their supporters; to refusing fundraising help to outside groups; and to limited their own parties to legal forms of involvement."
McCain has called this double speak, but in light of the 250 million dollars that Ari Fleischer is sitting on and the Swift Boating of 2004 it is clear that it is McCain who speaks with a forked tongue.
In the end this is a great symbol. Obama is willing to use public financing only, but wants to use the voices and microdonations of the people only if need to counteract the less than honest intentions of McCain who wants to use public financing so he can capitalize on his 527 Swift Boating buddies to do the dirty work for him.
I said it before and I will say it again.... Keating 5!
Now, Obama has not ruled out doing Public Financing, however what he has said was that he would only commit to Public Financing if both sides agree to prevent 527 money from getting into the mix when he said both candidates would need to:
"commit to discouraging cheating by their supporters; to refusing fundraising help to outside groups; and to limited their own parties to legal forms of involvement."
McCain has called this double speak, but in light of the 250 million dollars that Ari Fleischer is sitting on and the Swift Boating of 2004 it is clear that it is McCain who speaks with a forked tongue.
In the end this is a great symbol. Obama is willing to use public financing only, but wants to use the voices and microdonations of the people only if need to counteract the less than honest intentions of McCain who wants to use public financing so he can capitalize on his 527 Swift Boating buddies to do the dirty work for him.
I said it before and I will say it again.... Keating 5!
Good Cup of Joe
For the last few weeks the HRC campaign has taken to saying the media has been too soft on the Obama campaign as a whole and the candidate in particular. I am not one to usually cite Joe Scarborough for keen political thought and insight by virtue of the fact that he and I are on opposite ends of the spectrum. However, he brought up an excellent point this morning...
How would Obama and his campaign been treated in the media if they had lost 10 straight contests?
HRC has been granted a huge number of second and third chances in this campaign that no other candidate would have been granted. Rudy got crucified for his Florida strategy that failed miserably.
Given the current state of things it will be interesting to see if the media lets Clinton push the bar further back should she stumble or not get the sweep she needs and perhaps even more interesting will be the question of if the media gives Obama a chance to recover if she does carry the day.
How would Obama and his campaign been treated in the media if they had lost 10 straight contests?
HRC has been granted a huge number of second and third chances in this campaign that no other candidate would have been granted. Rudy got crucified for his Florida strategy that failed miserably.
Given the current state of things it will be interesting to see if the media lets Clinton push the bar further back should she stumble or not get the sweep she needs and perhaps even more interesting will be the question of if the media gives Obama a chance to recover if she does carry the day.
Taking All Comers
Now that HRC and John McCain are both going on the attack against Obama it should be interesting to see how he and his campaign hold up. Clearly, if he survives the onslaught of the next few weeks and is at least competitive on March 4 he will have shown that he can take the best from 2 national campaigns at the same time. If he is splits or sweeps the day regardless of margin, then the Clinton campaign is going to have to think long and hard about the political price of going further.
Tuesday, February 19, 2008
Plagiarism?
Since my academic career is way behind me I feel very safe in confiding with you all that as a student I was guilty of plagiarism at several points through my academic career. Those of you who have known me for a long time may not find that shocking but this does I feel give me some latitude to speak as one who has been guilty of this offense in the past.
Now, I know that I am given to quoting people without crediting them all the time. Sometimes these are famous well known expressions that the public know about and other times it is passing along something I heard along the way. At no point do I intend to convince everyone that I am smarter then they think I am by the comments that I use. In fact the main reason why I do this is to make a point and sometimes other people have already come up with the best way to say it and so why fight city hall. I say this because I think this latest attempt to make an issue out of Obama's use of Gov. Patrick's wording is perhaps the most ridiculous of these flailing punches to date.
Not only are Obama and Patrick very good friends for more than 15 years, but they actually share a lot of the same political team. In comparing this to Joe Biden in 1988, what gets conveniently left on the curb is that Biden was caught taking wholesale statements and themes from a British politician with whom he had no relationship whatsoever.
While I usually quote my mother when I say "no enemies only customers" or my dad with his "the man with the gold makes the rules" or Roger Grimsby's more cynical "the fucking you get not being worth the fucking you get" but I certainly don't do this every time. Besides they aren't even the originator of those words but crediting them or not does not make me a plagiarist today.
Now, I know that I am given to quoting people without crediting them all the time. Sometimes these are famous well known expressions that the public know about and other times it is passing along something I heard along the way. At no point do I intend to convince everyone that I am smarter then they think I am by the comments that I use. In fact the main reason why I do this is to make a point and sometimes other people have already come up with the best way to say it and so why fight city hall. I say this because I think this latest attempt to make an issue out of Obama's use of Gov. Patrick's wording is perhaps the most ridiculous of these flailing punches to date.
Not only are Obama and Patrick very good friends for more than 15 years, but they actually share a lot of the same political team. In comparing this to Joe Biden in 1988, what gets conveniently left on the curb is that Biden was caught taking wholesale statements and themes from a British politician with whom he had no relationship whatsoever.
While I usually quote my mother when I say "no enemies only customers" or my dad with his "the man with the gold makes the rules" or Roger Grimsby's more cynical "the fucking you get not being worth the fucking you get" but I certainly don't do this every time. Besides they aren't even the originator of those words but crediting them or not does not make me a plagiarist today.
Update on Revote08.com
Sorry to have been tied up the last few days, but I was working on the revote08.com site so I could get something launched quickly.... I really believe that this could be a critical issue for the ongoing nomination process as well as a potential nightmare in the general election so I would please ask that you take some time to consider that I am standing here waving my arms now in hopes that the truck isn't going to end up down the road where the bridge is out.
Saturday, February 16, 2008
Debates and the General Election
The Clinton campaign has been very quick to jump up and down about the lack of a debate before the Wisconsin primary. It is interesting to remember that this is the same candidate who complained about the number of debates early on.
That being said, if it wasn't for the fact that there is already a debate scheduled for next Thursday in Austin, Texas with another a few days later, I would agree that we never have enough debates. I just hope that this theme carries on through the general election where the public is best served through thorough and numerous debates that involve direct interaction between the candidates. Letting them call each other out allows them to also rebut the others stupid charges on the spot and expose the fraud among the real candidates. Also, the more the candidates debate in the fall the clearer it would be what direction there party would take the country in should they assume power.
That being said, if it wasn't for the fact that there is already a debate scheduled for next Thursday in Austin, Texas with another a few days later, I would agree that we never have enough debates. I just hope that this theme carries on through the general election where the public is best served through thorough and numerous debates that involve direct interaction between the candidates. Letting them call each other out allows them to also rebut the others stupid charges on the spot and expose the fraud among the real candidates. Also, the more the candidates debate in the fall the clearer it would be what direction there party would take the country in should they assume power.
Thursday, February 14, 2008
Revote08.com Update
I am continuing to put the pieces together to launch revote08.com with a goal of raising the money necessary for a mail in and internet based primary so we can legitimately seat the full delegations from Florida and Michigan.
The current math shows that both of these states full slate of delegates are needed to allow for a clean nomination process. Hillary is still trying to say that the fatally flawed Michigan and Florida results from January should count. In light of the fact that she was the only major candidate who did not have the honesty to remove her name from the Michigan ballot it is obvious why she wants that lopsided result to stand.
I am eagerly looking for ways to get the message out, so once we launch I need everyone to tell your friends, media and political consulting contacts, and importantly any talk radio show that you like to listen to.
The current math shows that both of these states full slate of delegates are needed to allow for a clean nomination process. Hillary is still trying to say that the fatally flawed Michigan and Florida results from January should count. In light of the fact that she was the only major candidate who did not have the honesty to remove her name from the Michigan ballot it is obvious why she wants that lopsided result to stand.
I am eagerly looking for ways to get the message out, so once we launch I need everyone to tell your friends, media and political consulting contacts, and importantly any talk radio show that you like to listen to.
Mark Penn is a Moron
During a press call yesterday, Clinton's chief strategist had the stupidity to say:
"Could we possibly have a nominee who hasn't won any of the significant states -- outside of Illinois? That raises some serious questions about Sen. Obama.”
This is the same kind of stupidity that has run 51/49 and flyover state elections for the last 14 years and has resulted in losses for the democrats every time they buy into it. Howard Dean proved last year that a 50 state strategy was the key to the Dems getting back into power and he was right.
Penn may choose to right off states like Idaho because they are bright red, but remember that they will have a disgraced Senator (Larry Craig) leaving his seat in January and so there is reason to want to create buzz in the land of the spuds.
Obama has also brought out huge crowds in winnable states like Colorado and even Kansas, where a Democrat is currently the very popular governor.
Once again this is truly about the old thought of us versus them and the more pragmatic, productive, and yes hopeful approach of one United States of America.
"Could we possibly have a nominee who hasn't won any of the significant states -- outside of Illinois? That raises some serious questions about Sen. Obama.”
This is the same kind of stupidity that has run 51/49 and flyover state elections for the last 14 years and has resulted in losses for the democrats every time they buy into it. Howard Dean proved last year that a 50 state strategy was the key to the Dems getting back into power and he was right.
Penn may choose to right off states like Idaho because they are bright red, but remember that they will have a disgraced Senator (Larry Craig) leaving his seat in January and so there is reason to want to create buzz in the land of the spuds.
Obama has also brought out huge crowds in winnable states like Colorado and even Kansas, where a Democrat is currently the very popular governor.
Once again this is truly about the old thought of us versus them and the more pragmatic, productive, and yes hopeful approach of one United States of America.
A look at the polls
After McCain's clean sweep on Tuesday any doubt that the Republican nomination is all but sewn up was put to bed. That being said the polls coming out of the next round of states show that Obama still has a lot of messaging to get out. His lead in Wisconsin, which along with Hawaii holds a primary on Tuesday, is down to a handful with a large number of voters still claiming to be undecided. Obama is campaigning heavily here and it seems that even though Hillary has thrown some late resources into the race, his energy in the state should continue to spread and carry the day.
Beyond next Tuesday things are a lot less clear. Hillary's early front runner status is still holding strong in OH and PA where polls out today show her having a comfortable double digit lead. However, it is also clear that Obama's numbers start to go up as soon as he starts to campaign somewhere, and it only stands to figure that once WI and HI wrap up on Tuesday that TX and OH will get there chance to see what the rest of the country has been exposed to. The Ohio campaign figures to also give the campaigns an opportunity to get the message going in bordering Pennsylvania, which votes on 4/22.
The trends are all indicating that Clinton will have to fight for wins in these states and reality is already showing that she is throwing everything she has at them.
Beyond next Tuesday things are a lot less clear. Hillary's early front runner status is still holding strong in OH and PA where polls out today show her having a comfortable double digit lead. However, it is also clear that Obama's numbers start to go up as soon as he starts to campaign somewhere, and it only stands to figure that once WI and HI wrap up on Tuesday that TX and OH will get there chance to see what the rest of the country has been exposed to. The Ohio campaign figures to also give the campaigns an opportunity to get the message going in bordering Pennsylvania, which votes on 4/22.
The trends are all indicating that Clinton will have to fight for wins in these states and reality is already showing that she is throwing everything she has at them.
Where the Dems Go from Here
The talk is heating up in the Democratic nomination battle with the Clinton camp running a new ad accusing Obama of being afraid to debate in Wisconsin. It is interesting to remember that once upon a time Hillary derided the other candidates in the race for wanting debates because she believed they were taking up her valuable time.
Wednesday, February 13, 2008
Scalia's Bizzare Little World
Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia made some public comments yesterday that should send a chill down anyone's body. It is his stated belief that while there may be a limit on the type of treatment a convicted individual may endure, such protections do not apply to suspects. As such, he foresees where methods such as water boarding would not be unconstitutional so long as the person isn't covered by the protections afforded. Here are the words right from the horse's ass:
In the interview with the Law in Action programme on BBC Radio 4, he said it was "extraordinary" to assume that the ban on "cruel and unusual punishment" - the US Constitution's Eighth Amendment - also applied to "so-called" torture.
In the interview with the Law in Action programme on BBC Radio 4, he said it was "extraordinary" to assume that the ban on "cruel and unusual punishment" - the US Constitution's Eighth Amendment - also applied to "so-called" torture.
"To begin with the constitution... is referring to punishment for crime. And, for example, incarcerating someone indefinitely would certainly be cruel and unusual punishment for a crime."
Justice Scalia argued that courts could take stronger measures when a witness refused to answer questions.
"I suppose it's the same thing about so-called torture. Is it really so easy to determine that smacking someone in the face to determine where he has hidden the bomb that is about to blow up Los Angeles is prohibited in the constitution?" he asked.
"It would be absurd to say you couldn't do that. And once you acknowledge that, we're into a different game.
"How close does the threat have to be? And how severe can the infliction of pain be?"
Ouch!
Obama and McCain Cruise to Big Wins
Both parties saw sweeps last night and now it seems the Obama campaign is pivoting to start addressing McCain in his stump speeches. However, one need only look at the differences in the crowds and tone to see that we will have two very different candidates this fall if this all continues to unravel as it currently is with one candidate speaking to the America of the past made up of those nostalgic for the days of so called moderate republicanism twinged with the promise of judges who view the constitution as words whose exact and precise wording is beyond interpretation.
Tuesday, February 12, 2008
Caucuses getting a bum rap
The Clinton campaign is doing its best to dismiss the results of the caucus states by saying they are not representative of the true will of all voters, just the ones who have a lot of time. Bill Clinton even remarked that the people who aren't able to vote in the caucuses are actually the people who need a President because they are in need of someone who can help them improve their lives.
Here are the problems with these arguments:
Here are the problems with these arguments:
- Many of the caucuses have been held on the weekends when most have union labor has off.
- Some places like Maine have actually allowed for absentee balloting.
- Turnout has been overwhelming at the caucuses to the point where they have actually let a lot of people vote and leave.
The Bogus Superdelegate Argument
Perhaps the most bogus argument about super delegates was made by the Clinton campaign over the weekend when they said the delegates were all people who at some point on the state local or national level had stood election and were thus entrusted by the people to be leaders and make decisions.
The problem is that about 25% of these delegates are party activists and consultants who have never been elected by you or me to do anything. In some cases these are the same people who would be called lobyists or people who work for lobbying firms and interests once the candidate is elected and that is where the rub is.
It is bad enough that people think that that elected officials deserve extra say but the consultant class? I just saw a guy who is with the Young Democrats of America who is a super delegate who said the highlight of his life was getting a call from Bill Clinton himself... anyone else see the problem here? While this guys heart is probably in the right place, why is his voice worth as much as thousands of democrats?
The delegate system in the democratic party needs a major overhaul. The gradual creep that we get with this disproportionate proportional delegate allocations of delegates needs to be more respectful of the margins that we actually see in primaries to allow for a cleaner result.
People will only continue to be interested if the results are transparent and easy to decipher and that is not where we are today.
The problem is that about 25% of these delegates are party activists and consultants who have never been elected by you or me to do anything. In some cases these are the same people who would be called lobyists or people who work for lobbying firms and interests once the candidate is elected and that is where the rub is.
It is bad enough that people think that that elected officials deserve extra say but the consultant class? I just saw a guy who is with the Young Democrats of America who is a super delegate who said the highlight of his life was getting a call from Bill Clinton himself... anyone else see the problem here? While this guys heart is probably in the right place, why is his voice worth as much as thousands of democrats?
The delegate system in the democratic party needs a major overhaul. The gradual creep that we get with this disproportionate proportional delegate allocations of delegates needs to be more respectful of the margins that we actually see in primaries to allow for a cleaner result.
People will only continue to be interested if the results are transparent and easy to decipher and that is not where we are today.
Monday, February 11, 2008
Proposal for Florida and Michigan
As you know I am a Florida Democrat, and as such have been rattling my noodle for a solution to the delegate problem in my state, as well as that in
I sent the following to my friends in the political consulting community this morning.... I would love to hear back from people as to how they feel about this idea as I am very serious about pursuing it. The results in
An all mail in and online based primary.
The election last month drew 1.5 million voters. Remember that this number was inflated by a very hot statewide property tax amendment and in addition, that slot machines were on the Miami Dade ballot. If you take the 1.5 million voters who voted in the original primary and throw in a premium of another 500,000 voters because of the hype, we end up with 2 million voters looking to cast ballots. Therefore if you figure a cost for postage, printing , administrative, and processing on the high side at $1.25 per voter you get a cost of $2.5 million, which is significantly less than the $4 million that has been estimated as the cost of a caucus. We can allocate another $1.5 million against the cost of
Published reports show that the DNC is willing to put up money to defray part of the costs for this so that means that at the most all that needs to be raised is 2-3 million dollars to cover the difference for both states. Keep in mind that this is a situation where there is no limit on contributions and there are a very motivated group of donors nationally who want to see a legitimate result out of
There are numerous voters in both states who did not cast ballots because they were told the elections were nothing more than beauty contests by the national and state party as well as by the news media and the candidates themselves. These voters could conceivably file suit to block seating of the delegates. This could be used to either force the hands of the parties that be or as a further justification of why this has to take place. I was hoping to get some feedback from you all and see if you think this is worthwhile to pursue. I can get the web presence built out to get the donation machine flowing very quickly and in such a way that it can be grown out over time to accommodate additional information and promotion to the site.
This is a great opportunity to fix this before it gets out of hand and so I am willing to dedicate whatever I have to so please let me know. This can be plunked on to the back end of the calendar in late may and early June so that this becomes more of a formality if not necessary but also leaving plenty of time for candidates to campaign in both states. I have floated this trial balloon around the sunshine state and this definately has a lot of voter interest. $10 from 300,000 people solves this (or more from less :) ).
Sunday, February 10, 2008
Yahoo! to Spurn Microsoft
Now that Yahoo! is going to turn away Microsoft's hostile bid of 44 billion it will be interesting to see how things in Redmond play out. Clearly they are looking to make a play to boost there presence on the web and while they could try and sweeten the offer with the webs number 2 it is clear that Yahoo! thinks they are worth a lot more than what was offered and so it is probably a better idea that it looks at some other properties that might be available.
The Keating Five
Want to impress your friends this election season? When you get into a discussion about John McCain and his wealth of experience, see if the person (or people) remember that McCain was censured in the senate for being one of the famous Keating Five from the S&L scandal in the 80's.
I can understand why Bush never used this 2000, since it would have called the actions of his brother Neil into question, but how did Mitt Romney's folks miss this opportunity. The country is in the midst of another financial sector crisis, with it being based in residential real estate instead of commercial like last time, and you have to figure the similarities are easy to call out from there.
With Keating, McCain was nailed for trying to stop the investigation of Keating's Lincoln Savings and Loan, so how would he pursue bad actors (and clearly there were some) who made out on the mortgage problem of today.
I can understand why Bush never used this 2000, since it would have called the actions of his brother Neil into question, but how did Mitt Romney's folks miss this opportunity. The country is in the midst of another financial sector crisis, with it being based in residential real estate instead of commercial like last time, and you have to figure the similarities are easy to call out from there.
With Keating, McCain was nailed for trying to stop the investigation of Keating's Lincoln Savings and Loan, so how would he pursue bad actors (and clearly there were some) who made out on the mortgage problem of today.
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